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Employment Situation – A Sticky Bit – Jun 7, 2019

MARKET COMMENTARY – 

The ‘strong hand’ of enthusiasm has kept markets afloat yet another day – testing levels we have seen on the horizon from the beginning of the week. We await employment numbers. Traders are often sitting in the following situations in this move – the ‘wow, surely it can’t move higher’, and ‘if I get in now, is it too late?’ Statistically, we know the charts have been primed to continue with both trend and momentum in the mix and overnight and across the board, we’ve seen a steady move upward.

SOOOO, what’s the story here? The long countertrend push higher in the markets is intact. The FOMC is a reactionary vehicle so they need to have DATA to drive the desire to lower rates. Herein lies the sticky bit with the numbers. Markets have failed to deep support -trade war chatter suggests a tough time for the economy ahead so the Fed funds rate futures now predicts a high likelihood of rate reduction ahead. This has propelled enthusiasm for a lift in the markets and a sharp countertrend move.

Now, if the numbers are bad – the probability of a rate reduction is higher and signals a potential topping of the employment numbers (a further signal of global slowing) – if the numbers are good – the Fed has NO EMPLOYMENT DATA to justify the hike. This backdrop is a muddy one for sure, so be careful with your size today as the employment numbers could signal a reversal or continuation.

Tech tested our key level this morning at 7315 and has backed off -it still continues to be weak relative to the other markets as it recovers.

TAKEAWAY – Bullish bounce in an intermediate bearish trend signal tells us that for the moment as long as we hold higher supports, we will either stay in the range or head higher. The backdrop of global slowdown still prevails.

RECAP – $ES_F Buyers now stronger above 2846.75 but face resistance to 2873. The midline near 2853 is the battleground in the $ES_F (where we are now) – for the $NQ_F this midline number is 7315 (also at this region).

Sellers want to move us below 2831 but are willing to wait it out and stage the fade near 2853 and once more around 2874 if they fail. This is the current battle and could be a coin toss in terms of direction. Be alert –

Divergent action still sits below the movement of price on both sides of the trades – long and short – but traders are still looking at deep support edges to bounce. Lower highs and lower lows confirm to me that the overall pressure still looks negative but slipping neutral in the shorter duration as the counter trend bounce tries to hold a footing.

HOW TO STUDY THE CHARTS WEBINAR – RECORDING

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DECISION EVENTS

****OUR METASTOCK MAP IS NOW SECURELY ENGAGED SHORT IN THE SWING MOTION BUT THE FORMS SUGGEST TAKING PROFIT AS IT TESTS LOWER AND ADDING BACK AT KEY AREAS OF RESISTANCE.

DEEP DIPS AND WIDE SPIKES IN PRICES ARE ALWAYS A STRONGER PROBABILITY WHEN THE SWING SIGNAL IS AT A CROSS CURRENT TO THE TREND

ALERT –  Still negative formations hold in the swing short – charts are likely to bounce to lower highs.  Very excited to see these levels 

Divergence and defense of recent lows tell us buyers are still in the fight as sellers engage actively    Here’s a link to the METASTOCK software

IF YOU DON’T JOURNAL YOUR PROGRESS, YOU SHOULD – How about finally starting that trading journal?

 Here’s an easy way to keep track of your progress

PROTECTED DATA SITS BELOW –

IF YOU CAN SEE THIS LINE, YOU ARE LOGGED IN

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