MARKET COMMENTARY –
Momentum and short term trend remain bullish -after a weak jobs number that preceded the market bouncing sharply and into the very familiar 2886 region in the ES_F. This region will be very important today and possibly this week. Below 2882, the hand of bullish participants will weaken. As I mentioned Friday, we simply cannot fight the trend and momentum moving in the same direction. But we also must continue to manage risk – these two together can be difficult.
The long countertrend push higher in the markets is still intact. The Fed funds rate futures still predicts a high likelihood of rate reduction ahead and the dollar is now at an equally important level to hold. This has propelled enthusiasm for a lift in the markets and a sharp countertrend move.
TAKEAWAY – Bullish bounce in an intermediate bearish trend signal tells us that for the moment as long as we hold higher supports, we will either stay in the range or head higher. The backdrop of global slowdown and trade chatter still prevails.
RECAP – $ES_F Buyers now stronger above 2886.75 but face resistance to 2923. Pullbacks into higher lows will be buy zones intraday and traders have a bullish slant overall (which I suspect is a bit toppy).
INTRADAY -Sellers want to move us below 2878 intraday but are willing to wait it out and stage the fade near 2897 and once more around 2915 if they fail to push prices lower at first. This is the current battle and could be a coin toss in terms of direction. Be alert –
Divergent action still sits below the movement of price on both sides of the trades – long and short – but traders are still looking at deep support edges to bounce. The counter trend bounce tries to hold a footing.
****OUR METASTOCK MAP IS NOW SECURELY ENGAGED SHORT IN THE SWING MOTION BUT THE FORMS SUGGEST TAKING PROFIT AS IT TESTS LOWER AND ADDING BACK AT KEY AREAS OF RESISTANCE.
DEEP DIPS AND WIDE SPIKES IN PRICES ARE ALWAYS A STRONGER PROBABILITY WHEN THE SWING SIGNAL IS AT A CROSS CURRENT TO THE TREND
ALERT – Still negative formations hold in the swing short – charts are likely to bounce to lower highs. Very excited to see these levels
Divergence and defense of recent lows tell us buyers are still in the fight as sellers engage actively Here’s a link to the METASTOCK software
IF YOU DON’T JOURNAL YOUR PROGRESS, YOU SHOULD – How about finally starting that trading journal?
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