MARKET COMMENTARY –
Rising above 2886 in the ES_F yesterday saw traders battling to hold over this key level in a grind upward. As yesterday, I suspect below 2882, the hand of bullish participants will weaken. Both momentum and trend still stretch upward from an intraday perspective. The weekly bearish trigger went off at the failed retest of 2923 with the confirmation at the loss of 2913 after that. The final target near 2839 for me (see the MetaStock map attached) gave us a trigger of support and this is the formation that we are running through.
RECAP -The long countertrend push higher in the markets is still intact. The Fed funds rate futures still predicts a high likelihood of rate reduction ahead and the dollar is still battling at support. This has propelled enthusiasm for a continued lift in the markets and a sharp countertrend move. Bonds are stalling out a bit, even as chatter about yields falling further. $ES_F Buyers now stronger above 2886.75 but face resistance to 2923. Pullbacks into higher lows will be buy zones intraday and traders have a bullish slant overall (which I suspect is a bit toppy).
TAKEAWAY – Bullish bounce in an intermediate bearish trend signal tells us that for the moment as long as we hold higher supports, we will either stay in the range or head higher. The backdrop of global slowdown and trade chatter still prevails.
INTRADAY -Sellers want to move us below 2878 intraday but are willing to wait it out and stage the fade near 2915 if they fail to push prices lower at first. This is the current battle and could be a coin toss in terms of direction. Be alert –
Divergent action still sits below the movement of price on both sides of the trades – long and short – but traders are still looking at deep support edges to bounce. The counter trend bounce tries to hold a footing.
DEEP DIPS AND WIDE SPIKES IN PRICES ARE ALWAYS A STRONGER PROBABILITY WHEN THE SWING SIGNAL IS AT A CROSS CURRENT TO THE TREND
ALERT – Still negative formations hold in the swing short – charts are likely to bounce to lower highs. Very excited to see these higher levels from which I can initiate a new short once more.
Divergence and defense of recent lows tell us buyers are still in the fight as sellers engage actively Here’s a link to the METASTOCK software
IF YOU DON’T JOURNAL YOUR PROGRESS, YOU SHOULD – How about finally starting that trading journal?
PROTECTED DATA SITS BELOW –
IF YOU CAN SEE THIS LINE, YOU ARE LOGGED IN
NEW LINK BACK TO GOTOWEBINAR
WEBINAR RECORDINGS ARE AVAILABLE BY REQUEST
NOTICE: All user and member interaction and participation with TheTradingBook.com implies agreement with our Terms & Conditions