MARKET COMMENTARY –
Traders hold the regions here building the volume profiles and keeping us in range based formations. The 2880 support area still gives us the environment that holds fairly bullish as we wait for retail sales and industrial production coming today and of course the Fed next week. When markets hold ranges, traders are waiting for the catalyst to press us to the next stop- as participants, we must understand this and wait, or if we feel we are seeing a certain edge, we must position ourselves with risk exposure in mind first.
BIG PICTURE -The weekly bearish trigger went off at the failed retest of 2923 with the confirmation at the loss of 2913 after that. The final support target near 2839 for me gave us a trigger of support and this is the support bounce formation that we are running through. We are still in the wait state and trading the formations in-between the resolution of price behavior of the current scenario and today.
INTRADAY RECAP – Rangebound between 2868 and 2917 with volatility holding a bit higher than in days past. Traders are flooding into gold. The Fed funds rate futures still predicts a high likelihood of rate reduction ahead and the dollar is also bouncing off support as gold breaks out. $ES_F Buyers stronger above 2897.75 but face resistance to 2923.
-Sellers want to move us below 2880 intraday. Pullbacks into higher lows will be buy zones intraday and traders have a bullish slant overall but breakouts are not likely to hold.
TAKEAWAY – Bullish bounce in an intermediate bearish trend signal tells us that for the moment as long as we hold higher supports, we will either stay in the range or head higher. Manage your risk by waiting to the edges and playing the range. The backdrop of global slowdown and trade chatter still prevails.
Divergent action still sits below the movement of price on both sides of the trades – long and short – but traders are still looking at deep support edges to bounce. The counter trend bounce tries to hold a footing but is stalling out.
DEEP DIPS AND WIDE SPIKES IN PRICES ARE ALWAYS A STRONGER PROBABILITY WHEN THE SWING SIGNAL IS AT A CROSS CURRENT TO THE TREND
ALERT – Still negative formations hold in the swing short – charts are likely to bounce to lower highs. Very excited to see these higher levels from which I can initiate a new short once more.
Divergence and defense of recent lows tell us buyers are still in the fight as sellers engage actively Here’s a link to the METASTOCK software
IF YOU DON’T JOURNAL YOUR PROGRESS, YOU SHOULD – How about finally starting that trading journal?
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