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Trader Fear Creeps In – Aug 5, 2019

MARKET COMMENTARY

Negative news headlines filter through most of the major publications today with news of mass shootings, more oil tankers seized, partisan political chatter, bond yield collapse, the yuan released from its 7 pin to the US dollar by China, and more. It’s been a long time since this much negative news has been on the airwaves and traders are moving markets the way fear does – down.

PRICE ACTION

The e-mini S&P continues its retreat and just tested another key level near 2882 before bouncing. Staying above 2882 will be beneficial but being below 2916 will be bearish and sellers will remain in control as bounces will be more probable to further sell off. The mini Nasdaq slipped below another key support level near 7620 where it failed and seems to be on approach 7490. The mini DOW seems to be on its way to the breakaway level near 26060. A negative slant has drifted over the market but from fast moves come failed moves – so a cautionary note about further downside that quickly recovers should be on the mind as possible. In short, however, traders are nervous so prepare for bounces that fail. Only the failure to head lower tells us that traders are stopping their selling.
COMMODITY WATCH
Gold is screaming higher and under some technical divergence. That negative divergence has not given us any deep pullbacks as traders continue to flock to gold. The levels near 1442-1446 could give us low risk higher yield for endering here. Currency moves are at the forefront of the markets this week and over the coming months. The USD index holds above 98. and that big bounce we were estimating is in full swing as we stretched into 99 and then faded. The ‘tit for tat’ behavior of other central banks will like push the dollar down when that begins – but before then, we will likely see more upside. WTI is range bound once again holding well between 57.16 and 54.6 – more importantly, however, even with the tanker seizure, we hold below 56.
INTRADAY RECAP
Bearish slant as we come into deeper support. The levels and range between 2861 to 2881 is the watch data for the e-mini S&P support with 2913-2934 as resistance. The mini Nasdaq is within the range between 7460 support and 7652 resistance.  Continue to be careful here on the edges of your charts as we could accelerate out and continue if traders get too heavy on the edges.
OVERALL
Divergent action still sits below the movement of price on both sides of the trades – long and short – but traders are still looking at deep support edges to bounce.  They are currently failing in this endeavor as we search for stabilizing support below.
METASTOCK SHORT ENGAGED WITH SHORT ACTION ON NOTED BOUNCES INTO RESISTANCE- 10 point stop minimum
If traders push us to close above 2946 today, we will have to consider a REVERSAL long on the upside for the short term

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