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Shallow Volume = Weak Moves – Aug 20, 2019

MARKET COMMENTARY – Traders have kept us near our 2921 region but have not had the pressure to move us higher. We are in a wait state. This is a cautionary tale that could turn either way so we need to pay attention to ranges today and assume trend holds…until it doesn’t, at which point we move out of the way.

PRICE ACTION
The e-mini S&P moved off support 2892 and as expected, we have sellers showing the 2920 region. The fat line in the sand for resistance is the region between 2937-2941. If the buyers win this battle, we have another 100 point candle into 3021 that will be formidable resistance at the first pass through. Holding above 2900 means the balance of strength has once again swayed to the buyers for now, but moving above here on light volume implies we don’t have a lot of participation.
COMMODITY & CURRENCY WATCH
Gold broke from its high and is now retracing the motion upward yet still holding 1500- key support. Technical divergence we’ve seen in the weeks prior is playing out here so I expect a deeper fade to support but that seems to be moving slowly. Currency risks are still in play. The USD index now holds sharply above 98, resilient in its upward path against pressure elsewhere with 98.60 as the next line in the sand to breach. WTI is continuing its recovery but needs to breach and hold 56.3 for buyers to take a more aggressive stance. So far, traders are still struggling there.
INTRADAY RECAP
Ranges hold wider and we hold levels between 2892 and 2946. The mini Nasdaq is battling in the range between 7610 to 7750.  The mini DOW is holding support near 25846 with resistance sitting near 26248. Continue to be careful here on the edges of your charts as we could accelerate out and continue if traders get too heavy on the edges, in which case, you’ll have to reverse your position.
OVERALL WIDE ANGLE
Deep support bounces engage –shifting the balance of the traders to a bullish stance into resistance. Weekly charts are showing flattening momentum and some more downside weakness that that must be confirmed.
METASTOCK SWING SHORT – in a wait state – traders are in a shorter term trend long into resistance which may be coming to an end this morning.  Any big bounces into 2937 that then lose 2924 will create a new swing short

TARGETS for intraday motion are range bound

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