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Jackson Hole & The Fed – Aug 22, 2019

MARKET COMMENTARY – Traders have kept us above 2930 region but have not had the pressure to move us higher and stay there. Trading here without the catalyst means that we could reverse on the highs or lows. Continue to watch your edges.

PRICE ACTION
The e-mini S&P has broken above congestion but, again without the catalyst, we have to consider that bounces will have a weak probability of holding at the highs. The fat line in the sand for resistance remains the region between 2937-2941. If the buyers win this battle, we have another 100 point candle into 3021 that will be formidable resistance at the first pass through. Holding above 2929 will mean the balance of strength has once again swayed to the buyers, for now, but moving above here on light volume implies we don’t have a lot of participation and hence a move downward off these edges.

COMMODITY & CURRENCY WATCH
Gold broke from its high and is now retracing the motion upward yet still holding 1500- key support but continues to look weaker as the market steadies. Technical divergence we’ve seen in the weeks prior is playing out here so I expect a deeper fade to support but that seems to be moving slowly. Currency risks are still in play. The USD index now holds above 98 but is beginning to look weak above this level. WTI is continuing its recovery and is now above 56.3 where buyers are more comfortable. That said – we are looking at major resistance zones and should fade off the highs.

INTRADAY RECAP
Ranges hold wider and we hold levels between 2892 and 2946- we tested the lower edge yesterday and are now above 2822. The mini Nasdaq is battling the higher edge of congestion 7750.  The mini DOW is holding support that was prior resistance -26248. Continue to be careful here on the edges of your charts as we could accelerate out and continue if traders get too heavy on the edges, in which case, you’ll have to reverse your position. For now, they remain reversal regions.

OVERALL WIDE ANGLE MARKET VIEW
Deep support bounces engage –shifting the balance of the traders to a bullish stance into resistance. Weekly charts are showing flattening momentum and some more downside weakness that that must be confirmed.

METASTOCK SWING SHORT – in a wait state – traders are in a shorter term trend long into resistance which may be coming to an end this morning.  Any big bounces into 2937 that then lose 2924 will create a new swing short – still waiting for this.

 Here’s a link to the METASTOCK software

IF YOU DON’T JOURNAL YOUR PROGRESS, YOU SHOULD – How about finally starting that trading journal?

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