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Range Bound Traders- Sept 3, 2019

NOTE – Stayed an extra day in our Florida home to make sure everything was secured in case of Dorian landfall. Heading back this morning- no webinar until tomorrow – please read data carefully

MARKET COMMENTARY -Markets gapped down last night and after exploring the region around 2890, traders began to claw their way back up into the gap created at the open in the overnight. Participants are range bound as the VIX stays above 20. We are seeing what I suspect is ‘noise’ in the price patterns with deep support action holding in a market lacking in participation.

WEEKLY PRICE ACTION
New support as we begin the week is near 2881-2890 -a watermark for buyers with 2946 noted from last week as resistance. Deep support tests into these levels over the coming week should bring buyers as along as sellers do not tip the balance. This is the region of primary participation with size, all else equal this week. Resistance ranges are a bit ‘soft’ but generally between 2917-2944 for upside pressure. The range of 2874 to 2897- seen last week as resistance is now our new support edge region to watch. Large expansion outside of these trading levels are very likely to reverse due to the undercurrents.


Expected moves from volatility ranges give us likelihoods of breaking out of ranges – CAUTION if trading reversals today- stops should be tight and follow the breakout if it happens and momentum agrees. Weekly charts continue to show flattening momentum and some more downside weakness that that is confirming but still close to major supports. Buyers are still showing up at deep value areas.

COMMODITY & CURRENCY WATCH
After a week of downside action, gold is back to positive with silver and platinum running to catch up last week. Support levels in gold are near 1530 for now as the motion continues to be frothy. Buying highs will give us quite a bit of risk exposure. Currency risks remain in play with the yuan losing ground against the dollar once more. The USD index now holds above 99 and clearly on its march to 100 with 100.4 as a potential target upside before its retracement. Steep fades create buying opportunities here. WTI is still solidly range-bound where buyers are more comfortable at deep support near 53-54 (sitting just above 54 this morning) and sellers at higher levels above 56.8- 57. The dollar is certainly going to exercise more pressure on oil here in the short run.

INTRADAY TRADING VIEW
Thin volume due to whipsaw action and waiting on the Sept 17 meeting from the Fed. Rangebased trading advised with edges defined above in the weekly formation. Limited participation with both size and engagement. be patient. Please log in for the definitive levels of engagement today

METASTOCK SWING SHORT – in a wait state –

Interim long action at 2894.5 with a 10 stop with targets at 2912-2920. This creates a risk profile that is a bit larger than average due to upside potential being somewhat limited

 Here’s a link to the METASTOCK software

IF YOU DON’T JOURNAL YOUR PROGRESS, YOU SHOULD – How about finally starting that trading journal?

 Here’s an easy way to keep track of your progress

PROTECTED DATA SITS BELOW –

IF YOU CAN SEE THIS LINE, YOU ARE LOGGED IN

NEW LINK FOR TRADING DATA EXCEL SPREADSHEET -REMEMBER, WE ARE USING AGGRESSIVE ENTRIES IN THIS MARKET

WEBINAR LINK FOR THE WEEK BEGINNING SEPTEMBER 3, 2019 – 

HOW TO TRADE THIS SPREADSHEET AND TRADE MECHANICS IN GENERAL- STUDY VIDEOS SERIES

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