MARKET COMMENTARY -Jerome Powell speaks again today and into a release on Wednesday. And volatility comes with that -even as ranges hold. The market has a different ‘feel’ to me as the weight of discord begins to weigh heavier on the market. That said (I know, lots of people hate that term), reversals could stretch higher or lower before returning to the wide range we have defined in prior notes.
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WEEKLY PRICE ACTION
Neutral to negative action, and more negative momentum are now present. Indices are coming into the top of the volatility boxes. Messy trading continues. We closed the week prior above 2877 – and today we battle near 2911- 2917. Holding 2972 will be more bullish on a weekly close – we will see what happens next. Jerome Powell’s release tomorrow may jolt the market into either of these edges (2877 or 2972).
COMMODITY & CURRENCY WATCH
Gold prices are failing supports but recovering above 1504 – messy support should be troubling to buyers. Use caution with the broad notion that this is a bullish bent – there is significant risk. The US dollar has lost 99 but should grind to 100 eventually, with deep dips finding buyers. Losing 97 will change this outlook. WTI failed 53.40 support area in a gloomy outlook – likely a trade war/global slowing story playing out here. Failure to close the week above 54 will be quite bearish- deep support zone near 51.40 which was broken and quickly recovered but a revisit here is certainly on the table.
TRADING VIEW & ACTION PLAN
Buyers are struggling near 2917.5. Deep pullbacks (2909-2911) are the best places to engage if risk exposure is your primary concern and you are considering long action. Mixed undercurrents exist so range trades are the best. Realize that we could bounce higher than anticipated and fade deeper than anticipated before returning to the range. Follow the trend in the shorter time frames and watch the price action. The theme of motion is NEGATIVE AS LONG AS WE HOLD BELOW 2901ish today -and POSITIVE AS LONG AS WE HOLD ABOVE 2948ish today – choppy inside the range. Do what’s working and watch for weakness of trend. Please log in for the definitive levels of engagement today.
METASTOCK SWING SHORT – swing shorts engage at 2958 to 2972 for tests of 2878 to 2882.
METASTOCK SWING LONG – inactive
Intraday LONG trading from support edges like the VWAP or solid moving averages will give you the least risk event for engaging. Intraday SHORT trading from resistance edges like the old highs will give you the least risk event for engaging. Follow the candle trend until candles stop breaking higher.
IF YOU DON’T JOURNAL YOUR PROGRESS, YOU SHOULD – How about finally starting that trading journal?
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