MARKET COMMENTARY -Jerome Powell speaks again today with snippets heard of increasing -not QE, QE inside of his commentary. We have been extremely rangebound working through the same levels for the entire week. Something is going to give, so stay frost today as edges on either end could expand in dramatic fashion. The market continues to have a different ‘feel’ to me as the weight of discord begins to weigh heavier on the market. That said (I know, lots of people hate that term), reversals could stretch higher or lower before returning to the wide range we have defined in prior notes.
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WEEKLY PRICE ACTION
Neutral action, and reduced momentum are now present. Indices are coming into the middle of the volatility ranges noted. Messy trading continues. We closed the week prior above 2877 – and today we battle near 2911- 2917 for a second day. Holding 2972 will be more bullish on a weekly close – we will see what happens next. Jerome Powell’s release today may jolt the market into either of these edges (2877 or 2972).
COMMODITY & CURRENCY WATCH
Gold prices are failing supports but recovering above 1504 again for a second day – messy support should be troubling to buyers here as we continue to fail at resistance. Use caution with size – there is significant risk in the chart. The US dollar has lost 99 but should grind to 100 eventually, with deep dips finding buyers. Losing 97 will change this outlook. WTI failed 53.40 support area in a gloomy outlook – likely a trade war/global slowing story playing out here. EIA report today. Failure to close the week above 54 will be quite bearish- deep support zone near 51.40 which was broken and quickly recovered but a revisit here is certainly on the table.
TRADING VIEW & ACTION PLAN
Buyers are struggling near 2917.5 again. Deep pullbacks that span a wide range (2878-2911) are the best places to engage if risk exposure is your primary concern and you are considering long action. Be patient and wait for your setups. Mixed undercurrents exist. Realize that we could bounce higher than anticipated and fade deeper than anticipated before returning to the range. Follow the trend in the shorter time frames and watch the price action. The theme of motion is NEGATIVE AS LONG AS WE HOLD BELOW 2911ish today (with bounces failing and deep pullbacks holding)-and POSITIVE AS LONG AS WE HOLD ABOVE 2948ish today – choppy inside the range. Do what’s working and watch for weakness of trend. Please log in for the definitive levels of engagement today.
METASTOCK SWING SHORT – swing shorts engage at 2958 to 2972 for tests of 2878 to 2882. – 2886 was tested yesterday without the bounce so a wait state is here again. Failure to hold 2911 will define a new line that will show resistance entries
Intraday LONG trading from support edges like the VWAP or solid moving averages will give you the least risk event for engaging. Intraday SHORT trading from resistance edges like the old highs will give you the least risk event for engaging. Follow the candle trend until candles stop breaking higher.
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