MARKET COMMENTARY – Levels have remained the same all week. We have been extremely rangebound working through the same levels for the entire week. Something is going to give, so stay frosty today as edges on either end WILL expand in dramatic fashion the longer we stay in the range. The market continues to have a different ‘feel’ to me as the weight of discord begins to weigh heavier on the market.
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WEEKLY PRICE ACTION
Neutral action, and reduced momentum are now present. Indices are in the middle of the volatility ranges noted. Messy trading continues. We closed the week prior above 2877 – and today we battle near 2911- 2917 for a second day. Holding 2972 will be more bullish on a weekly close – we will see what happens next. Next week is going to be the place to watch, especially since tons of volatility into expiration is being priced. BE CAREFUL, folks – complacency is a portfolio KILLER.
COMMODITY & CURRENCY WATCH
Gold prices are holding above 1504 again but staying over 1518 – messy support should be troubling to buyers here as we continue to fail at resistance. Use caution with size – there is significant risk in the chart. The US dollar has lost 99 but should grind to 100 eventually, with deep dips finding buyers. Losing 97 will change this outlook- right now we hold above 98.3, which is the baseline breakout region. WTI failed 53.40 support area in a gloomy outlook -and has not recovered. Failure to close the week above 54 will be quite bearish- deep support zone near 51.40 which was broken and quickly recovered but a revisit here is certainly on the table.
TRADING VIEW & ACTION PLAN
Buyers are struggling near 2917.5 again. Deep pullbacks that span a wide range (2878-2911) are the best places to engage if risk exposure is your primary concern and you are considering long action. Be patient and wait for your setups. Mixed undercurrents exist. Realize that we could bounce higher than anticipated and fade deeper than anticipated before returning to the range. Follow the trend in the shorter time frames and watch the price action. The theme of motion is NEGATIVE AS LONG AS WE HOLD BELOW 2927ish today (with bounces failing and deep pullbacks holding)-and POSITIVE AS LONG AS WE HOLD ABOVE 2948ish today – choppy inside the range. Do what’s working and watch for weakness of trend. Please log in for the definitive levels of engagement today.
METASTOCK SWING SHORT – swing shorts engage at 2958 to 2972 for tests of 2878 to 2882. – 2886 was tested yesterday without the bounce so a wait state is here again. Failure to hold 2911 will define a new line that will show resistance entries
Intraday LONG trading from support edges like the VWAP or solid moving averages will give you the least risk event for engaging. Intraday SHORT trading from resistance edges like the old highs will give you the least risk event for engaging. Follow the candle trend until candles stop breaking higher.
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