MARKET COMMENTARY – Newsfeeds have been driving algorithms that are now in control of market motion (broadly speaking). This gave rise to my language of ‘WILL expand’ from yesterday. Trades appear bullish but price action and momentum suggest the failure at the first pass into 2972 today. Discord reigns in the market currently, so we remain in the land of the quick and the dead.
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WEEKLY PRICE ACTION
Neutral action to bullish action with reduced momentum are now present. Indices are close to the highs of the volatility ranges noted. Messy trading continues. Holding 2972 on the close will be more bullish on a weekly close – and today seems the day for that. Next week is going to be the place to watch, especially since higher volatility into expiration is being priced. BE CAREFUL, folks – complacency is a portfolio KILLER.
COMMODITY & CURRENCY WATCH
Gold prices dramatically fell with the large move up and now still near older targets of 1468. As I have mentioned for about two weeks, being long in gold right now is not the best of positioning in the current space. Use caution with size – there is significant risk in the chart. Interestingly, the US dollar is holding the line under 98.7 even with the massive slide in gold. Pullbacks are still buying zones. WTI has bounced sharply into 54 with hopes of a trade deal and notions of increased risk around sensitive oil flats. Failure to close the week above 54 will be quite bearish- deep support zone near 51.40 which was broken and quickly recovered but a revisit here is certainly on the table.
TRADING VIEW & ACTION PLAN
Buyers are struggling near 2972.5 resistance. Deep pullbacks that span a wide range (2938-2954) but buying here seems to be a poor decision without a break and retest of upside pressure. Sellers abound up here. Be patient and wait for your setups. Mixed undercurrents exist. Realize that we could bounce higher than anticipated and fade deeper than anticipated before returning to the range. Follow the trend in the shorter time frames and watch the price action. The theme of motion is NEGATIVE AS LONG AS WE HOLD BELOW 2964ish today (with bounces failing and deep pullbacks holding)-and POSITIVE AS LONG AS WE HOLD ABOVE 2974ish today – choppy inside the range. Do what’s working and watch for weakness of trend. Please log in for the definitive levels of engagement today.
METASTOCK SWING SHORT – swing shorts engaged today at 2972 with very small size in swing account
Intraday LONG trading from support edges like the VWAP or solid moving averages will give you the least risk event for engaging. Intraday SHORT trading from resistance edges like the old highs will give you the least risk event for engaging. Follow the candle trend until candles stop breaking higher.
IF YOU DON’T JOURNAL YOUR PROGRESS, YOU SHOULD – How about finally starting that trading journal?
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