MARKET COMMENTARY – Tesla’s surprise is likely to continue a squeeze in motion in the stock today. Earnings continue to be mixed but certainly some bright spots – particularly in the airlines, are showing through. In continuation from yesterday, noting that the upside pressure holds less buying volume than selling volume, we shift into day INTO RESISTANCE. Markets still look like water hazards and sand traps to me =). Cross currents still sit in the middle of all of this. Neutral to bullish formations hold- that means pullbacks are buy zones. The key level this morning is again 3006.5 – 3016 -ahead as another a HUGE prior battleground. On top of that, the Fed reports next Wednesday with what they are to do with rates.
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WEEKLY PRICE ACTION
Neutral to bullish action with a hold over 3000 keeps us weakly bullish, with slightly positive momentum present. Pullbacks ought to be buying regions but the question might be – have we attained a primary target from which we are likely to fade. Look below for the intraday motion parameters.
COMMODITY & CURRENCY WATCH
Gold prices bounced off support near 1487 -and now traders are above 1506 even as prices in the indices hold. Risk is alive and well in the market- which again sends a cautionary light to the broad indices that are holding higher. Use caution with size – there is significant risk in the charts-in both directions. The US dollar is at a major support region and holding – it’s been a while since this lost support so a bounce that holds will be very important – we are in the fifth day of grinding through this region. WTI sits well above 54 after a large drawdown of US oil inventories stocks. Resistance now sits at 57.85.
TRADING VIEW & ACTION PLAN
Buyers dance at the breakout level near 3006 in the ES_F. Be patient and wait for your setups means that mornings like this that come into key support means that we can engage at this region. That has been around 2997. Understand your levels and prepare for them. Realize that we could bounce higher than anticipated and fade deeper than anticipated before returning to the range. Follow the trend in the shorter time frames and watch the price action. The theme of motion is NEGATIVE AS LONG AS WE HOLD BELOW 2996ish today (with bounces failing and deep pullbacks holding)-and POSITIVE AS LONG AS WE HOLD ABOVE 3009ish today (with big spikes likely fading back into congestion) – choppy inside the range. Do what’s working and watch for weakness of trend. Please log in for the definitive levels of engagement today.
METASTOCK SWING SHORT – inactive
METASTOCK SWING LONG – red diamond says we should be looking at the chart in terms of taking profits. Not re-engaging long until the tests of proper support. The last re-engagement was at the test near 2982….. a key anchor point for now. Breakouts still being attempted.
Intraday LONG trading from support edges like the VWAP or solid moving averages will give you the least risk event for engaging. Intraday SHORT trading from resistance edges like the old highs will give you the least risk event for engaging. Follow the candle trend until candles stop breaking higher.
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