MARKET COMMENTARY – As traders see an ‘all clear’ signal break, we are likely to get some kind of jolt from the jobs numbers. This makes for a deep dips into support where value buyers are likely to find support again in the most hated bull market of my time, anyway. We have broken out and sit in bullish continuation. Pullbacks are still buying opportunities but holding above 3020 is now the important to keep bullish pressure afloat, else a move to 3006-2994 is in the cards.
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WEEKLY PRICE ACTION
Neutral to bullish action with a close today over 3008 keeps us bullish (in terms of weekly closes), with slightly positive momentum present. Weekly patterns remain quite strong as do the monthly patterns. Pullbacks ought to be buying regions but the question might be – have we attained a primary target (3046) from which we are likely to fade? Today’s jobs numbers may bring us to deeper support and a retrace into noted levels above near 2994. Look below for the intraday motion parameters. Be cautious adding to swing positions in either direction.
COMMODITY & CURRENCY WATCH
Gold prices failed support but now sits at the top of the channel I noted a couple of months ago in the trading room. Breakout patterns look like tests of 1520 to 1531. Certainly a mixed signal as traders test all time highs while gold continues a march higher. Use caution with size – there is significant risk in the charts. The US dollar has failed at a major support region but still holding above 97. The longer it sits outside of the channel, the more likely it is to breakdown. This would help the Fed in its plan to stop interest rate drops. WTI sits right at 54.68 support after a fade and is trying to recover after a large drawdown of US oil inventories stocks- big oil reporting after the close today (strange that big numbers are coming on a Friday after the close). Resistance now sits at 57.85.
TRADING VIEW & ACTION PLAN
Buyers dance at the breakout level above 3030 in the ES_F which will hold as baseline support with sellers close by at 3042.5. Be patient and wait for your setups means that mornings like this that come into key support means that we can engage at this region. We are still near a pivot of sorts as we were yesterday in a bit of a range. Understand your levels and prepare for them. Realize that we could bounce higher than anticipated and fade deeper than anticipated before returning to the range – ESPECIALLY with the jobs numbers on the horizon. Follow the trend in the shorter time frames and watch the price action.
The theme of motion is:
POSITIVE AS LONG AS WE HOLD ABOVE 3030ish today (with big spikes likely fading back into congestion)
NEGATIVE AS LONG AS WE HOLD BELOW 3020ish today (with sharp bounces failing and deep pullbacks holding)– choppy inside the range.
Do what’s working (that means follow short trend and momentum signals while in the intraday spaces) and watch for weakness to develop away from your trade direction in order to leave. Please log in for the definitive levels of engagement today.
METASTOCK SWING SHORT – inactive
METASTOCK SWING LONG – Green diamond shows newest support ranges
Intraday LONG trading from support edges like the VWAP or solid moving averages will give you the least risk event for engaging.
Intraday SHORT trading from resistance edges like the old highs will give you the least risk event for engaging.
Follow the candle trend until candles stop breaking higher.
NEW LINK FOR TRADING DATA EXCEL SPREADSHEET -REMEMBER, WE ARE USING AGGRESSIVE ENTRIES IN THIS MARKET- If those levels have passed you, simply walk up your targets as the next entry as long as trend prevails.
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