MARKET COMMENTARY – Traders continue to hold us in breakout territory. Bullish signals hold in the premarket. Chatter about the possibility of a failed breakout float across media streams but price suggests that any fades will be bought up and we are quite likely to break higher once more. If you are looking for shorts, consider the weakest that look like they are recovering – as it is likely they are getting caught up in the fray of enthusiasm for higher prices. Pullbacks, even if they jolt us by their deepness will very likely be buying areas, especially at the first pass into weekly levels.
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WEEKLY PRICE ACTION
We shall keep looking for a close over 3072 to confirm a weekly breakout but dips near 3052 are also presenting possibilities as a draw to a support test. Positive momentum is and building. Weekly patterns remain quite strong as do the monthly patterns- from a bullish perspective. Be cautious adding to swing positions in either direction – particularly if you are considering shorts- as markets are not currently showing that short positions can gain traction at this time.
COMMODITY & CURRENCY WATCH
Finally, as we have held higher in the indices, gold has slipped below 1500 and having trouble. Traders are trying to catch a bottom here near 1482ish, but I suspect we need a real capitulation selling event for gold to find its real support and it could be 100$ below its current price near 1482. Breakout patterns look like tests of 1520 to 1535. Use caution with size – there is significant risk in the charts. The US dollar has recovered a major support region and now holding above 97.5 and re-entering the long channel. WTI sits above 57 after sellers tried to push it below. Resistance now sits at 57.85. EIA today – a build showed at the API
TRADING VIEW & ACTION PLAN
Buyers will have more strength above 3076 in the ES_F which will hold as minor breakout region with sellers continuing to wage a battle there- they won that battle yesterday. Broadly speaking, buyers have the advantage as long as we hold 3063. Be patient and wait for your setups means we wait for key support to engage and we don’t step in front of moves. Understand what your levels mean and prepare for the potential behavior at those levels. Realize that we could bounce higher than anticipated and fade deeper than anticipated before returning to the trend and range – Follow the trend in the shorter time frames and watch the price action.
The theme of motion is:
POSITIVE AS LONG AS WE HOLD ABOVE 3076ish today (with big spikes likely fading back into congestion)
NEGATIVE AS LONG AS WE HOLD BELOW 3061ish today (with sharp bounces failing and deep pullbacks holding)– choppy inside the range.
Do what’s working (that means follow short trend and momentum signals while in the intraday spaces) and watch for weakness to develop away from your trade direction in order to leave. Please log in for the definitive levels of engagement today.
METASTOCK SWING SHORT – inactive
METASTOCK SWING LONG – Green diamond shows newest support ranges
Intraday LONG trading from support edges like the VWAP or solid moving averages will give you the least risk event for engaging.
Intraday SHORT trading from resistance edges like the old highs will give you the least risk event for engaging.
Follow the candle trend until candles stop breaking higher.
NEW LINK FOR TRADING DATA EXCEL SPREADSHEET -REMEMBER, WE ARE USING AGGRESSIVE ENTRIES IN THIS MARKET- If those levels have passed you, simply walk up your targets as the next entry as long as trend prevails.
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