Happy Veterans Day to those who have served in the US Armed Forces –
MARKET COMMENTARY – Traders continue to hold us in a breakout range. Ranges are still compressing. Early morning moves downside from the premarket have not recovered at this writing. Lower tests will bring buyers into support regions below – see the image for the ES_F. Don’t rush the trades as price action is choppy and will give you room to engage on either side. Countertrend shorts are just that – countertrend with a short shelf life- BUT – this may hold for deeper dips if we lose 3063 and do not quickly see buyers coming to the rescue. Pullbacks, even if they jolt us by their deepness will very likely be buying areas, especially at the first pass into weekly levels.
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WEEKLY PRICE ACTION
We held over 3072 on Friday to confirm the weekly breakout formation. As we begin this week, dips near 3047-3063 are also presenting possibilities as support tests through the week. Positive momentum is continuing to flatten. Weekly patterns remain strong as do the monthly patterns- from a price perspective – so all eyes will be at the first potential hold above 3072. Be cautious adding to swing positions in either direction – particularly if you are considering shorts- as markets are not currently showing that short positions can gain traction at this time.
COMMODITY & CURRENCY WATCH
Gold continues to hold below 1500 -this will embolden sellers and gold holders to consider throwing in the towel for now. We are now just above the low of last week in a weak bounce to congestion near 1469- failure to recapture 1475 will deliver the possibility of a dip to 1454, 1445 and then 1434. Use caution with size – there is significant risk in these charts, in both directions as the gold chart is often used as a hedge and is prone to savage moves. The US dollar has recovered a major support region and now holding above 98, re-entering the long channel and pressing higher. Resistance so far has been strong at 98.7 with 98.4 just below. WTI sits below 57 after sellers pushed the high back down into congestion. Whipsaw is the only word I have here as traders reject the undertone created by the builds showing in the oil inventories and continue to hold higher support. Resistance sits at 57.85 to 58.4.
TRADING VIEW & ACTION PLAN
Buyers will have more strength above 3078 in the ES_F which will hold as minor breakout region with sellers continuing to wage a battle there. Presses to the upside have been finding sellers in place. Breaching 3089 will make for another push by buyers into prior highs. Broadly speaking, buyers have the advantage as long as we hold 3063- which is where we bounced in last Wednesday’s range. The support below that is 3052ish, so the loss of 3063 opens that level below. Be patient and wait for your setups – this means we wait for key support to engage and we don’t step in front of moves. Understand what your levels mean and prepare for the potential behavior at those levels. Realize that we could bounce higher than anticipated and fade deeper than anticipated before returning to the trend and range – Follow the trend in the shorter time frames and watch the price action.
The theme of motion is:
POSITIVE AS LONG AS WE HOLD ABOVE 3078ish today (with big spikes likely fading back into congestion)
CHOPPY BETWEEN 3078 AND 3063
NEGATIVE AS LONG AS WE HOLD BELOW 3063ish today (with sharp bounces failing and deep pullbacks holding)– choppy inside the range.
Do what’s working (that means follow short trend and momentum signals while in the intraday spaces) and watch for weakness to develop away from your trade direction in order to leave. Please log in for the definitive levels of engagement today.
METASTOCK SWING SHORT – inactive
METASTOCK SWING LONG – NEW RED DIAMOND shows latest resistance/support ranges
Intraday LONG trading from support edges like the VWAP or solid moving averages will give you the least risk event for engaging.
Intraday SHORT trading from resistance edges like the old highs will give you the least risk event for engaging.
Follow the candle trend until candles stop breaking higher.
NEW LINK FOR TRADING DATA EXCEL SPREADSHEET –REMEMBER, WE ARE USING AGGRESSIVE ENTRIES IN THIS MARKET– If those levels have passed you, simply walk up your targets as the next entry as long as trend prevails.
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