MARKET COMMENTARY – We grind higher with relatively narrow range bars. We are still in breakout ranges. The overnight’s range broke higher but prices could not hold breakout zones- the day before, it was the breakdown zones that could not hold lower. Today is options expiration Friday. Price action is still choppy but largely bullish. Countertrend shorts are just that – countertrend with a short shelf life, unless we lose 3081 today and fail to recapture it. Pullbacks, even if they jolt us by their deepness will very likely be buying areas, especially at the first pass into deeper weekly levels.
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WEEKLY PRICE ACTION
We continue to hold over 3072 last Friday to confirm the weekly breakout formation. As we continue this week, dips though now a bit less probable near 3047-3063 are presenting possibilities as support tests through the week, while the punch out to 3114 all the way to 3137 still stay upshot targets. Positive momentum is continuing to flatten but holding. Weekly patterns remain strong as do the monthly patterns- from a price perspective – so all swing trader eyes will be at the first potential hold above 3072 (which held well so far). Be cautious adding to swing positions in either direction – particularly if you are considering shorts- as markets are not currently showing that short positions can gain traction at this time.
COMMODITY & CURRENCY WATCH
Gold has lost the low of last week near 1469-and after testing near the 1445 level, those bottom pickers I mentioned have moved in. We need to breach 1472 and hold it for the price action to continue north. Use caution with size – there is significant risk in these charts, in both directions as the gold chart is often used as a hedge and is prone to savage moves. The US dollar has recovered a major support region and stalled near 98.35 and leaking lower, re-entering the long channel and pressing higher. Resistance so far has been strong at 98.7 with 98.4 just below. WTI continues its zigzag after sellers pushed us below 57 once more as we continue building inventories. Resistance sits at 57.85 to 58.4. Support levels sit 56.12 to 55.6
TRADING VIEW & ACTION PLAN
Bullish power present for now. Buyers will have more strength above 3108.75 in the ES_F which will hold as minor breakout region with sellers continuing to wage a battle there. Presses to the upside have been finding sellers in place. Retesting 3099 will make for another push by buyers into prior highs first. Those targets sit near 3112 (just shy of this number overnight) and a wide bounce to 3137 where option sellers are clearly sitting. Broadly speaking, buyers have the advantage as long as we hold 3089. The support below that is 3074ish, so the loss of 3089 opens that level below – this seems like the least likely probability unless it is news driven and it will be a buying zone as well. Be patient and wait for your setups – this means we wait for key support to engage and we don’t step in front of moves. Understand what your levels mean and prepare for the potential behavior at those levels. Realize that we could bounce higher than anticipated and fade deeper than anticipated before returning to the trend and range – Follow the trend in the shorter time frames and watch the price action.
The theme of INTRADAY motion is:
POSITIVE AS LONG AS WE HOLD ABOVE 3108ish today (with big spikes likely fading back into congestion)
CHOPPY BETWEEN 3089 AND 3106
NEGATIVE AS LONG AS WE HOLD BELOW 3099ish today (with sharp bounces failing and deep pullbacks holding)– choppy inside the range.
Do what’s working (that means follow short trend and momentum signals while in the intraday spaces) and watch for weakness to develop away from your trade direction in order to leave. Please log in for the definitive levels of engagement today.
METASTOCK SWING SHORT – inactive
METASTOCK SWING LONG – NEW RED DIAMOND shows latest resistance/support ranges
Intraday LONG trading from support edges like the VWAP or solid moving averages will give you the least risk event for engaging.
Intraday SHORT trading from resistance edges like the old highs will give you the least risk event for engaging.
Follow the candle trend until candles stop breaking higher.
NEW LINK FOR TRADING DATA EXCEL SPREADSHEET –REMEMBER, WE ARE USING AGGRESSIVE ENTRIES IN THIS MARKET– If those levels have passed you, simply walk up your targets as the next entry as long as trend prevails.
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