MARKET COMMENTARY – Upward trajectories hold in a week where traders look for employment numbers ahead. Chinese manufacturing numbers expand and global unrest spatter the headlines across news outlets. Traders may continue the quiet grind to the north as we wait for economic releases at the end of the week. Patterns show higher lows holding. Shorts at the breakdown levels continue to be poor trades, reminding us that the markets are still showing buying strength at support levels. All roads currently point upward, however, with last week’s targets near higher targets from 3157 to 3172 ahead this week. Holding the support edges will be critical as traders are still generally skittish and algorithms continue to take charge of motion based on news headlines.
WEBINAR LINK IS IN THE PROTECTED AREA OF THE BLOG – Please login and scroll down for the link.
WEEKLY PRICE ACTION
With an early 3155 rejection in the overnight session so far, we are holding the top of our range with continuation pressure showing. The probable dips in the higher range between the 3132-3141 region seem likely, with lower edges near 3124-3127. Positive momentum is continuing to flatten and weaken but holding. Weekly patterns remain strong as do the monthly patterns- from a price perspective. Be cautious adding to swing positions in either direction – particularly if you are considering shorts- as markets are not currently showing that short positions can gain traction at this time. Any downdrafts will likely be short term profit taking for now.
COMMODITY & CURRENCY WATCH
Gold looks rangebound for now. We need to breach 1475 and hold it for the price action to continue north- so far, lower highs are still bringing sellers to the party. The current range seems to present as 1443-1475. The US dollar sits above 98 and in a congested zone. Resistance so far has been strong at 98.7 with 98.4 just below. Support is near 97 for now and holding. WTI remains widely rangebound. Support sits regions between 55.2 and 56.12. Resistance levels sit near 58.42 to 60.6.
TRADING VIEW & ACTION PLAN
Mixed power present for now with a likely gap fade as the range of the gap is now quite small. Buyers will have more strength above 3144.75 in the ES_F which will hold as the breakout region with sellers continuing to wage a battle there. Sellers will have more pressure below 3132. Presses to the upside have been finding sellers in place. Broadly speaking, buyers have the advantage as long as we hold 3126. The support below that is 3074ish, so the loss of 3089 opens that level below.
Be patient and wait for your setups – this means we wait for key support to engage, and we don’t step in front of moves. Understand what your levels mean and prepare for the potential behavior at those levels. Realize that we could bounce higher than anticipated and fade deeper than anticipated before returning to the trend and range – Follow the trend in the shorter time frames and watch the price action.
The theme of INTRADAY motion is:
POSITIVE AS LONG AS WE HOLD ABOVE 3145ish today (with big spikes likely fading back into congestion)
CHOPPY BETWEEN 3127 AND 3139
NEGATIVE AS LONG AS WE HOLD BELOW 3124ish today (with sharp bounces failing and deep pullbacks holding)– choppy inside the range.
Do what’s working (that means follow short trend and momentum signals while in the intraday spaces) and watch for weakness to develop away from your trade direction in order to leave. Please log in for the definitive levels of engagement today.
METASTOCK SWING SHORT – inactive
METASTOCK SWING LONG – NEW RED DIAMOND shows latest resistance ranges but we have broken through and now potentially are readying for another leg higher.
Intraday LONG trading from support edges like the VWAP or solid moving averages will give you the least risk event for engaging.
Intraday SHORT trading from resistance edges like the old highs will give you the least risk event for engaging.
Follow the candle trend until candles stop breaking higher.
IF YOU HAVE THINKORSWIM, YOU CAN LOAD MY PRIMARY LEVELS FROM THIS LINK. I do not put target or secondary price levels on my charts
NEW LINK FOR TRADING DATA EXCEL SPREADSHEET –REMEMBER, WE ARE USING AGGRESSIVE ENTRIES IN THIS MARKET– If those levels have passed you, simply walk up your targets as the next entry as long as trend prevails.
WEBINAR RECORDINGS ARE AVAILABLE BY REQUEST
NOTICE: All user and member interaction and participation with TheTradingBook.com implies agreement with our Terms & Conditions