MARKET COMMENTARY -Iran responds but cooler heads prevail. The collapse of price into the 3186 region was met by buyers who have brought us all the way back to 3225. Healthy attention to support means the best thing for us as traders- engage long there– and pay attention if prices fail your front line of support. That number is near 3213 here in the overnight session. The punchline remains that we are still bullish with the markets being juiced by the repurchasing window, so it means that our fades are “reversion to the mean” plays – where buyers will engage -just don’t try to pick the bottom. Complacency still abounds
WEBINAR LINK IS IN THE PROTECTED AREA OF THE BLOG – Please login and scroll down for the link.
WEEKLY PRICE ACTION
Positive momentum holds us in a breakout pattern with a stall and a reversion to the mean in progress which we have likely attained in the overnight. We will know more when we see the bounce hold or fail. We closed last week above 3236 and currently still sit below this region near 3226. It is reasonable to assume that buyers will engage at these lower support levels but continue to keep watch for lower highs or the failure to hold nearby lows to signal a change of direction. Fades into weekly support areas noted will give us good engagement regions for long action.
INTERESTING SNAPSHOT from Koyfin -a ten-day look back
COMMODITY & CURRENCY WATCH
Gold spiked into 1613 before fading into 1580 where prices struggle at this time. Traders positioning for volatility continue to drive price higher. The US dollar is above key support zone- 96.6 as traders continue to trade in dollars for euros in the current cycle- I anticipate a price test of 97.4 again, as we did the Fibonacci study in our last webinar. WTI exploded higher tonight but reverses into the resistance region of 63.5. Support sits between 59.27 and 61.2. Resistance levels sit near 63.5 to 66.97
TRADING VIEW & ACTION PLAN
We have a wave of a reversion to the mean under a bullish price environment. Pullbacks will be buying opportunities but they are likely to be deeper as we sit below tight moving averages. Broadly speaking, buyers still have an advantage above 3215. SIGNAL LIGHTS ARE YELLOW-watch those supports
The theme of INTRADAY motion is:
POSITIVE AS LONG AS WE HOLD ABOVE 3239ish today (with big spikes likely with shallow fades back into breakout)
CHOPPY BETWEEN 3215 AND 3242
NEGATIVE AS LONG AS WE HOLD BELOW 3209ish today (with sharp bounces failing and deep pullbacks holding)– choppy inside the range.
Follow short term trend and momentum signals while in the intraday trading environment and watch for weakness to develop away from your trade direction in order to leave. Please log in for the definitive levels of engagement today.
METASTOCK SWING SHORT – Loss of 3242 resumes the short pressure with a stop at 3252… Target at 3189 hit with overnight news – intraday short still in play as long as we do not hold above 3231
METASTOCK SWING LONG – No swing longs in play…intraday longs off support
Intraday LONG trading from support edges like the VWAP or solid moving averages will give you the least risk event for engaging.
Intraday SHORT trading from resistance edges like the old highs will give you the least risk event for engaging.
Follow the candle trend until candles stop breaking higher.
IF YOU HAVE THINKORSWIM, YOU CAN LOAD MY PRIMARY LEVELS EACH DAY FROM THIS LINK. Because levels change often, you’ll need to download these each day. I do not draw all secondary price levels on my charts-
NEW LINK FOR TODAY’S TRADING DATA EXCEL SPREADSHEET –
REMEMBER, WE ARE USING AGGRESSIVE ENTRIES IN THIS MARKET– If those levels have passed you, simply walk your targets up the levels noted on the spreadsheet as the next entry as long as trend prevails.
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