MARKET COMMENTARY -Bullish behavior holds steady as the level near 3276 still holds as important for traders in the overnight as technical divergence shows but has little effect on prices. We remain bullish. Pullbacks are buying zones for participants in the current environment. My suspicion is that Nasdaq traders want to peg 10,000 and Dow traders want to press 30,000. Option sellers are poised at 3303-3305 for expiration this week. We’ll have a battle there no doubt but expanding over that could see a volatility expansion in range.
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WEEKLY PRICE ACTION
Positive momentum holds us in a breakout pattern after a bounce from support. We closed last week above 3263 and currently sit well above this new region -near 3292 in the overnight. It is reasonable to assume that buyers will engage at support levels noted but continue to keep watch for lower highs or the failure to hold nearby lows to signal a change of direction. Fades into weekly support areas noted will give us good engagement regions for long action. New higher support at 3289.
INTERESTING SNAPSHOT from Koyfin -a ten-day look back- Russia still way ahead of the pack
COMMODITY & CURRENCY WATCH
Gold has faded and continues to fade into lower support regions – the next support test is 1531 and then 1513 below that. The US dollar has now stalled below 97.4 We are at a decision zone here, so we are in a wait state again before we position using the UUP or the FXE (representing the inverse of the dollar). WTI has reversed into deeper support regions near 58. Buyers have a lot to prove here but news of hedge funds removing bullish exposure continues to depress the price. Support sits between 57.27 and 58. Resistance levels sit near 63.5 to 66.97
TRADING VIEW & ACTION PLAN
We had a wave of a reversion to the mean complete under a bullish price environment and that has us at new highs for the second out of three days. Pullbacks will be buying opportunities, but we are potentially looking at choppy markets as traders digest moves in a broader sideways formation. Broadly speaking, buyers still have an advantage above 3206- so deeper dips still make for bullish support entries. SIGNAL LIGHTS ARE GREEN-but watch those higher supports near 3276 – 3287
The theme of INTRADAY motion is:
POSITIVE AS LONG AS WE HOLD ABOVE 3281ish today (with big spikes likely with shallow fades back into breakout)
CHOPPY BETWEEN 3254 AND 3284
NEGATIVE AS LONG AS WE HOLD BELOW 3258ish today (with sharp bounces failing and deep pullbacks holding)– choppy inside the range.
Follow short term trend and momentum signals while in the intraday trading environment and watch for weakness to develop away from your trade direction in order to leave. Please log in for the definitive levels of engagement today.
METASTOCK SWING SHORT – Complete and stopped out- very choppy environment if we are looking for engagement and hard stops
METASTOCK SWING LONG – No swing longs in play…intraday longs off support as negative divergence shows. Only dips into 3260-3276 that recover will make for good long trades. Resistance sits near 3305.
Intraday LONG trading from support edges like the VWAP or solid moving averages will give you the least risk event for engaging.
Intraday SHORT trading from resistance edges like the old highs will give you the least risk event for engaging.
Follow the candle trend until candles stop breaking higher.
IF YOU HAVE THINKORSWIM, YOU CAN LOAD MY PRIMARY LEVELS EACH DAY FROM THIS LINK. Because levels change often, you’ll need to download these each day. I do not draw all secondary price levels on my charts-
NEW LINK FOR TODAY’S TRADING DATA EXCEL SPREADSHEET –
REMEMBER, WE ARE USING AGGRESSIVE ENTRIES IN THIS MARKET– If those levels have passed you, simply walk your targets up the levels noted on the spreadsheet as the next entry as long as trend prevails.
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