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Mortgage Applications, EIA Reports & 162 Companies- Feb 12, 2020

MARKET COMMENTARY

Markets have held higher lows in a continuation of upside motion. Traders are clearly afraid of missing out just so long as the Fed repurchasing window stays open. Our Fibonacci level of 3371 was tested and then retested after the support bounce near 3357. Minor technical divergence remains present – another reason why we don’t look at technical drift to determine motion but slope of trend. New Fibonacci levels look like 3381-3386. Gold and Bitcoin levels are surprisingly elevated under these conditions.

WEBINAR LINK IS IN THE PROTECTED AREA OF THE BLOG – Please login and scroll down for the link.

WEEKLY PRICE ACTION
Earnings season continues with more than 600 companies reporting this week. Monthly support has shifted down with a midweek candle showing the way -now sits at 3212. Weekly support is 3264-3291 while resistance and Fibonacci extensions show 3364 – 3386 as targets on the horizon if trend holds.

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Great news here – we now have sharing links for each of the charts we follow that (if you have ThinkorSwim) you can load directly onto your charts.
NEW LINK FOR TODAY’S TRADING DATA EXCEL SPREADSHEET

Individual TOS Chart share links for ES_F , NQ_F , YM_F , CL_F , GC_F

REMEMBER, WE ARE USING AGGRESSIVE ENTRIES IN THIS MARKET– If those levels have passed you, simply walk your targets up the levels noted on the spreadsheet as the next entry as long as trend prevails.

WEBINAR LINK FOR THE WEEK BEGINNING Feb 10, 2020

WEBINAR RECORDINGS ARE AVAILABLE BY REQUEST

COMMODITY & CURRENCY WATCH
Gold has broken back above 1563 confirming the rounding bottom we were watching. If the participants fail to hold this region near 1556, we will focus on 1536 once more – and holding over 1570 could easily go to 1581. We remain in congested support near 1574 at this writing. The US dollar is holding over 98 once again – seems like a press to 99 is on the horizon as we continue to hold trendlines upward-particularly after the jobs number that weakens the Fed’s likelihood of dropping rates. WTI failed deep monthly support regions but is attempting a bounce near the 50 region for several days- EIA on the horizon- OPEC+ still considering further cuts (but I suspect cuts are drifting into existential space for them)

TRADING VIEW & ACTION PLAN
We are still looking at choppy news-driven markets after our deep fade recovers and sends us to new highs under technical divergence. SIGNAL LIGHTS ARE YELLOW-but much more bullish than before so look for higher lows at the first passes from resistance to support. If levels near 3306 fail, we will have a much greater chance of bearish action building before buyers try to engage again.

The theme of INTRADAY motion is: BREAKOUT under minor technical divergence and holding a retest of support.

POSITIVE AS LONG AS WE HOLD ABOVE 3357.75ish today (with big spikes likely with shallow fades back into breakout)

CHOPPY BETWEEN 3330 AND 3364.75

NEGATIVE AS LONG AS WE HOLD BELOW 3323ish today (with sharp bounces failing and deep pullbacks holding)– choppy inside the range.

Follow short term trend and momentum signals while in the intraday trading environment and watch for weakness to develop away from your trade direction in order to leave. Please log in for the definitive levels of engagement today.

TARGET RICH TRADES

METASTOCK SWING SHORT – intraday trading signals present only

METASTOCK SWING LONG -in play but with a small reversion to the mean formation showing

Intraday LONG trading from support edges like the VWAP or tight moving averages will give you the least risk event for engaging – removing your trade at resistance

Intraday SHORT trading from resistance edges like the old highs or bigger moving averages will give you the least risk event for engaging.

Follow the candle trend until candles stop breaking higher.

Here’s a link to the METASTOCK software

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