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Preparing for Oncoming Volatility – Mar 2, 2020

MARKET COMMENTARY

In a remarkable whipsaw, Friday’s trading saw the drop of 130 ES_F points before a recovery bounce that held into the overnight session that bounced 170 points before fading once more into the congestion near 2923 where we currently sit. Recovering 2954 will be important in the trading character of the day today. We are going to see a massive amount of volatility which will allow big money houses to pounce using their intraday trading vehicles. We should be very careful to engage at our critical lines noted in the trading levels spreadsheet.

WEBINAR LINK IS IN THE PROTECTED AREA OF THE BLOG – Please login and scroll down for the link.

WEEKLY PRICE ACTION
Earnings season tapering off now. Monthly support has shifted down with and now sits at 2839.5. We have 200 points of congestion to work through.

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Sharing links for each of the charts we follow that (if you have ThinkorSwim) you can load directly onto your charts.
NEW LINK FOR TODAY’S TRADING DATA EXCEL SPREADSHEET

Individual TOS Chart share links for ES_F , NQ_F , YM_F , CL_F , GC_F

REMEMBER, WE ARE USING AGGRESSIVE ENTRIES IN THIS MARKET– If those levels have passed you, simply walk your targets up the levels noted on the spreadsheet as the next entry as long as trend prevails.

WEBINAR LINK FOR THE WEEK BEGINNING Mar 2, 2020

WEBINAR RECORDINGS ARE AVAILABLE BY REQUEST

COMMODITY & CURRENCY WATCH
Gold broke hard before recovering (remember the volatility squeeze we spoke about that told us something was coming)- these sorts of things it is important to add to your memory. Pullbacks are buying zones as we recover above 1600. We’ll still be running to the upside as soon as the chart has worked off its overbought condition. The US dollar has rolled right over into support. Currency markets remain extremely volatile with sharp moves across the board, so ripple effects should slip into the US dollar as they have. WTI failed the 50$ region under after support lost sending us on the fade to the mid 40’s as expected. Recovering 50.12-50.46 will be critical for any bullish motion to take over. And that seems very far away. Bounces are sell zones as we try to hold 45ish or risk a collapse to the sector.

TRADING VIEW & ACTION PLAN
We are still looking at choppy news-driven with our deep fade still in progress. Bearish at the first passes from resistance to support. Levels near 2889 are support regions that have seen buyers in the past. Traders will be whipsawed trying to engage.

The theme of INTRADAY motion is: BREAKDOWN and congested near monthly support levels near 2854 to 2823

POSITIVE AS LONG AS WE HOLD ABOVE 2956.5ish today (with big spikes likely with shallow fades back into breakout)

CHOPPY BETWEEN 2876 AND 2974.75

NEGATIVE AS LONG AS WE HOLD BELOW 2854ish today (with sharp bounces failing and deep pullbacks holding)– choppy inside the range.

Follow short term trend and momentum signals while in the intraday trading environment and watch for weakness to develop away from your trade direction in order to leave. Please log in for the definitive levels of engagement today.

TARGET RICH TRADES

METASTOCK SWING SHORT – in play – nasty formations near the bottom here. Take profit at new lows – short is still engaged but wild swings make for tough position holding in the indices

METASTOCK SWING LONG – a reversion to the mean formation showing.

Intraday LONG trading from support edges like ABOVE the VWAP or tight moving averages will give you the least risk event for engaging – removing your trade at resistance will allow you to participate – understanding that countertrend bounces can be swift and sharp but will likely fail under the broken structure of the market.

Intraday SHORT trading from resistance edges like the old highs or bigger moving averages will give you the least risk event for engaging.

Follow the candle trend until candles stop breaking higher.

Here’s a link to the METASTOCK software

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