MARKET COMMENTARY –
The dash for cash is afoot as everything sells off and continues into the overnight after a bounce. Europe is in lockdown -short selling of government bonds is illegal and a dollar starved world trades their currencies in as market participants search for a bottom. We are in liquidation mode and are only a few points from being limit down in the overnight. Whipsaws remain the name of the game. Here’s the moral of this particular story – don’t buy any bounces – and if you think you are making a bottom somewhere in your stocks, make sure the stocks tell you they are doing just that. Trading these markets takes significant skill – and just because there are opportunities, doesn’t mean you have the chops to do it.
WEBINAR LINK IS IN THE PROTECTED AREA OF THE BLOG – Please login and scroll down for the link.
WEEKLY PRICE ACTION
Monthly support has both shifted down with and now sits at 2505.5 which is broken with 2350 below that broke in trading today, recaptured and then broke again. There is a level below just over 2000 that has now shown up as a potential level below. Truly, it is as if we have had a bomb go off. Demand and supply shock is what folks are worried about for the future, and we will continue to sell until these are resolved.
Sharing links for each of the charts we follow that (if you have ThinkorSwim) you can load directly onto your charts.
NEW LINK FOR TODAY’S TRADING DATA EXCEL SPREADSHEET –
REMEMBER, WE ARE USING PROVEN SUPPORT AS LONG ENTRIES AND PROVEN RESISTANCE AS SHORT ENTRIES IN THIS MARKET– If those levels have passed you, simply walk your targets up the levels noted on the spreadsheet as the next entry as long as trend prevails.
WEBINAR LINK FOR THE WEEK BEGINNING Mar 16, 2020-no webinar today – we will have one tomorrow (Friday)
WEBINAR RECORDINGS ARE AVAILABLE BY REQUEST
COMMODITY & CURRENCY WATCH
Gold is trying to test 1500 and it seems clear that participants are still removing their exposure to the broad market. Gold is simply not holding as a haven as traders are literally taking everything to cash. We have two levels to watch- 1468 and 1368 – as areas of key support. The US dollar is exploding and the dollar shortage play is playing out – up at 101 and climbing. The levels near 102-104 are next. Currency markets remain very volatile. WTI fell to 21$ as a game of chicken ensues between Saudi Arabia and Russia and they both hope US fallout is a byproduct of their oil skirmish. There is a lot of damage being done to the energy export sectors.
TRADING VIEW & ACTION PLAN
We are still looking at choppy news-driven with deep fades and high spikes by momentum traders who give us trading ranges that are large. Bearish at the first passes from resistance to support. Levels near 2506 to 2257 make the wide ranges of support where we are seeing players and the 2578-2707 range looks like front line resistance for now. Traders will be whipsawed trying to engage, so choose wisely.
The theme of INTRADAY motion is: BREAKDOWN with swift and savage bounces into resistance levels that get pressed higher and return to deep support due to momentum trading.
POSITIVE AS LONG AS WE HOLD ABOVE 2716.5ish (with big spikes likely with shallow fades back into breakout)
CHOPPY BETWEEN 2114 AND 2707.75
NEGATIVE AS LONG AS WE HOLD BELOW 2594 ish today (with sharp bounces failing and deep pullbacks holding)– choppy inside the range.
Follow short term trend and momentum signals while in the intraday trading environment and watch for weakness to develop away from your trade direction in order to leave. Please log in for the definitive levels of engagement today.
METASTOCK SWING SHORT – in play – nasty formations near the bottom here. Take profit at new lows – short is still engaged green diamond says to trim gains at the lows.
METASTOCK SWING LONG – a reversion to the mean formation showing as potentially completed.
Intraday LONG trading from support edges like ABOVE the VWAP or tight moving averages will give you the least risk event for engaging – removing your trade at resistance will allow you to participate – understanding that countertrend bounces can be swift and sharp but will likely fail under the broken structure of the market.
Intraday SHORT trading from resistance edges like the old highs or bigger moving averages will give you the least risk event for engaging.
Follow the candle trend until candles stop breaking higher.
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