All Access,  Blog

The Bounce is Afoot- Caution Still Required- Mar 20, 2020

MARKET COMMENTARY– 24 hours without a phone (that literally has my entire life on it…new phone supposed to arrive Monday)

After selling in every single asset and the dollar exploding to $103, we have slowed some selling and markets are trying to settle in and weigh in on what it means to have Central Banks throw everything they can at the problems at hand across the world. The role of Central Banks is to try to stabilize the economy in hard times so that civil war or bigger wars do not erupt. Here’s their shot =)… thinking we are safe for now. Europe is in lockdown -and we have the National Guard being deployed across the world. Short selling of government bonds remains illegal and a dollar starved world will trade their currencies in for US dollars. Whipsaws remain the name of the game. Let your bounces confirm. Trading these markets takes significant skill – and just because there are opportunities, doesn’t mean you have the chops to do it.

WEBINAR LINK IS IN THE PROTECTED AREA OF THE BLOG – Please login and scroll down for the link.

WEEKLY PRICE ACTION
Monthly support has both shifted down with and now sits at 2505.5 which is broken with 2350 below that broke but has been recaptured. There is a level below just over 2000 that has now shown up as a potential level below. Demand and supply shock is what folks are worried about for the future, and we will continue to sell until these are resolved. More unrest over the weekend from a domestic space as the National Guard gets deployed.

*******************************************

Sharing links for each of the charts we follow that (if you have ThinkorSwim) you can load directly onto your charts.
NEW LINK FOR TODAY’S TRADING DATA EXCEL SPREADSHEET

Individual TOS Chart share links for ES_F , NQ_F , YM_F , CL_F , GC_F

REMEMBER, WE ARE USING PROVEN SUPPORT AS LONG ENTRIES AND PROVEN RESISTANCE AS SHORT ENTRIES IN THIS MARKET– If those levels have passed you, simply walk your targets up the levels noted on the spreadsheet as the next entry as long as trend prevails.

WEBINAR LINK FOR THE WEEK BEGINNING Mar 16, 2020

WEBINAR RECORDINGS ARE AVAILABLE BY REQUEST

COMMODITY & CURRENCY WATCH
Gold is trying to test 1500 and it seems clear that participants are still removing their exposure to the broad market. Gold is simply not holding as a haven as traders are literally taking everything to cash. We have two levels to watch- 1468 and 1368 – as areas of key support. The US dollar is exploding and the dollar shortage play is playing out – up at 101 and climbing. The levels near 102-104 are next. Currency markets remain very volatile. WTI fell to 21$ as a game of chicken ensues between Saudi Arabia and Russia and they both hope US fallout is a byproduct of their oil skirmish. There is a lot of damage being done to the energy export sectors.

TRADING VIEW & ACTION PLAN
We are still looking at choppy news-driven with deep fades and high spikes by momentum traders who give us trading ranges that are large. Bearish at the first passes from resistance to support. Levels near 2494 to 2357 make the wide ranges of support where we are seeing players and the 2528-2707 range looks like front line resistance for now. Traders will be whipsawed trying to engage, so choose wisely.

The theme of INTRADAY motion is: BREAKDOWN with swift and savage bounces into resistance levels that get pressed higher and return to deep support due to momentum trading.

POSITIVE AS LONG AS WE HOLD ABOVE 2716.5ish (with big spikes likely with shallow fades back into breakout)

CHOPPY BETWEEN 2114 AND 2707.75

NEGATIVE AS LONG AS WE HOLD BELOW 2504 ish today (with sharp bounces failing and deep pullbacks holding)– choppy inside the range.

Follow short term trend and momentum signals while in the intraday trading environment and watch for weakness to develop away from your trade direction in order to leave. Please log in for the definitive levels of engagement today.

TARGET RICH TRADES

METASTOCK SWING SHORT – in play – nasty formations near the bottom here. Take profit at new lows – short is still engaged green diamond says to trim gains at the lows.

METASTOCK SWING LONG – a reversion to the mean formation showing as potentially completed.

Intraday LONG trading from support edges like ABOVE the VWAP or tight moving averages will give you the least risk event for engaging – removing your trade at resistance will allow you to participate – understanding that countertrend bounces can be swift and sharp but will likely fail under the broken structure of the market.

Intraday SHORT trading from resistance edges like the old highs or bigger moving averages will give you the least risk event for engaging.

Follow the candle trend until candles stop breaking higher.

Here’s a link to the METASTOCK software

NOTICE: All user and member interaction and participation with TheTradingBook.com implies agreement with our Terms & Conditions