MARKET COMMENTARY– The size of our swings up and down are slowing a bit and ultimately, this is good news. If we are sitting on a slingshot move right back to the upside, the participants will still churn here as many money managers I listen to and speak with are still thinking this is going to give us a much deeper fade in the long run. If we follow the 2008 scenario where we rallied into the stimulus getting signed and then collapsed again after the bill is passed, we will have to see if we can hold these current lows, or test the dip near 2000. The market is turning and we will have churn in any rotation.
This remains a bear rally until we breach and hold over 2707. And that number…. feels very far away right now.
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WEEKLY PRICE ACTION
Monthly support has both shifted down with and now sits at 2086.5. There is a level below near 2024 that has now shown up as a potential level below. Resistance sits at 2380 (now support in the current upward swing) and 2554, with 2707 above that. Demand and supply shock is worrisome, and we will continue to sell big bounces until these are resolved. Remember, in bear rallies bounces can last for days.
Sharing links for each of the charts we follow that (if you have ThinkorSwim) you can load directly onto your charts.
NEW LINK FOR TODAY’S TRADING DATA EXCEL SPREADSHEET –
LANDLOCKED – LEVELS REMAIN THE SAME
REMEMBER, WE ARE USING PROVEN SUPPORT AS LONG ENTRIES AND PROVEN RESISTANCE AS SHORT ENTRIES IN THIS MARKET– If those levels have passed you, simply walk your targets up the levels noted on the spreadsheet as the next entry as long as trend prevails.
COMMODITY & CURRENCY WATCH
Gold is on the run again over 1616 (new support) as the play by the Fed weakens the dollar and central banks across the world buy up gold. However, there is a problem in the gold markets right now as delivery of the metal cannot be fulfilled. As a result gold spot contracts are set to close only with no new buyers allowed. This might be forcing the futures prices in. There is a pressure forcing price from above that I still have not properly assessed. Still searching for the person who knows what is going on there and willing to tell me =). Charts are choppy still with WILD and WIDE swings. The US dollar is up over 100 and holding after testing near 103. Currency markets remain very volatile- but the stimulus bill is forcing it lower. WTI fell to 21$ but is now struggling near 24 – another fade on the horizon there (my thought anyway).
TRADING VIEW & ACTION PLAN
We are still looking at choppy news-driven arena with deep fades and high spikes by momentum traders who give us trading ranges that are large. Bearish at the first passes from resistance to support. Levels near 2274 to 2357 make the wide ranges of support where we are seeing players and the 2580-2707 range looks like front line resistance for now. Traders will be whipsawed trying to engage, so choose wisely.
The theme of broad motion is: BREAKDOWN with swift and savage bounces into resistance levels that get pressed higher and return to deep support due to momentum trading.
POSITIVE AS LONG AS WE HOLD ABOVE 2716.5ish (with big spikes likely with shallow fades back into breakout)
CHOPPY BETWEEN 2174 AND 2707.75
NEGATIVE AS LONG AS WE HOLD BELOW 2504 ish today (with sharp bounces failing and deep pullbacks holding)– choppy inside the range.
Follow short term trend and momentum signals while in the intraday trading environment and watch for weakness to develop away from your trade direction in order to leave. Please log in for the definitive levels of engagement today.
METASTOCK SWING SHORT – closed- nasty formations near the bottom here. Take profit at new lows – green diamond and buy zone trigger now says we are in broad market churn back into resistance or until the low is broken
METASTOCK SWING LONG – a reversion to the mean formation showing as potentially completed.
Intraday LONG trading from support edges like ABOVE the VWAP or tight moving averages will give you the least risk event for engaging – removing your trade at resistance will allow you to participate – understanding that countertrend bounces can be swift and sharp but will likely fail under the broken structure of the market.
Intraday SHORT trading from resistance edges like the old highs or bigger moving averages will give you the least risk event for engaging.
Follow the candle trend until candles stop breaking higher.
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