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Jobless Claims- May 14, 2020

MARKET COMMENTARY– For yet another day, across the indices, we are within the larger bounded ranges. The sharp sell we saw came near the tops of our edges. We have a large range and if you are looking to carry a trade long for a bit, it is best that you wait until we test the lows. Right now, we are looking at 2809 as a support region for buyers to hold. We are still coiling – and I think that coiling will last for a couple of quarters. This means that all of the positioning in the range will create kindling for a fire. So, we remain in the wait state. Jobless claims are on the horizon in a few hours and options expire on Friday- both of which could create intraday catalysts for moves.

Trading yesterday afternoon we sold off and broke all the way into our 2823 trading support from our spreadsheets for a second day before breaking and then failing the retest of this number. We are clearly waiting on the jobs number. Gold is on the rise but still in the range. We have triple expiration ahead for Friday… which also gives us volatility.

The dangerous long trade in the US dollar is alive and well with sellers sitting just above 100 today – range bound. Gold is still building some buying pressure. All our asset classes remain in tight channels.

BUY THE DIP stays the comfortable trade – we just need to wait for entries and then trade into resistance for now. The oil space is holding steady and well above the $24 level but as we head into the expirations of this contract, the big question remains as to whether there is a market to take delivery.

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********If you feel you need some help understanding how price moves, remember you have the COACH’S CORNER for video review.

A wide range of motion broke our support at 2900. Sellers are strengthening their position. Please remember to orient your prices relative to the current environment and resist the urge to collapse your view to micros views. There has been little to dissuade me that the summer ‘wait state’ is ahead with a WIDE range as we sift through carnage for another quarter.


Chart share links for ES_F , NQ_F , YM_F , CL_F , GC_F – levels here for download to the ThinkorSwim platform – levels remain the same – some changes on the spreadsheets, though.


LINK FOR TODAY’S TRADING DATA EXCEL SPREADSHEET – please note this requires a new password each week and that password is Italy&Germany&EU


Wide-angle range based trading continues with bounces off deep support and resistance selling at the highs or recent congestion. Support holds lower near 2787 and the levels near 2954 look like front line resistance for now. Traders will be whipsawed trying to engage, particularly if thoughts of trending come to mind. Choose wisely.

If you find yourself being chopped up, widen your time frame or take time away from your screens. This is a time when less is more.

Intraday LONG trading from support edges like ABOVE the VWAP or tight moving averages will give you the least risk event for engaging – removing your trade at resistance will allow you to participate – understanding that countertrend bounces can be swift and sharp but will likely fail under the broken structure of the market.

Intraday SHORT trading from resistance edges like the old highs or bigger moving averages will give you the least risk event for engaging. Follow the candle trend until candles stop breaking higher.

Here’s a link to the METASTOCK software– you can have your own copy of Metastock to run these tests and setups using Target Rich Trades.

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