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Stall, Bold Taiwan Move & Options Expry- May 15, 2020

MARKET COMMENTARY– **Restaurants are open here in SW FL** The markets have held in the congestion region near 2823 since its bounce off our low range yesterday. From peak to Trough, the Dow moved over 800 points- this is not indicative of a stable market. Swings like this will really hurt the swing trader mentality most of all: the trader who is looking for a break to continue over days. Today is options expiration for many option classes and we should see a bit of volatility today. We are still coiling – and still packing kindling on the fire. So, we remain in the wait state. And, in a bold move, Taiwan Semi (TSM) is building a plant in the US. This will really aggravate China, so expect the rhetoric to increase.

The dangerous long trade in the US dollar is alive and well with sellers sitting just above 100 today – range bound. Gold is still building some buying pressure. All our asset classes remain in tight channels.

BUY THE DIP stays the comfortable trade – we just need to wait for entries and then trade into resistance for now. The oil space is moving again – looks like massive short covering here as we tested last month’s high.

WEBINAR LINK IS IN THE PROTECTED AREA OF THE BLOG – Please login and scroll down for the link.

********If you feel you need some help understanding how price moves, remember you have the COACH’S CORNER for video review.

A wide range of motion broke our support at 2900 early in the week and Wednesday’s collapse into deeper support near 2760 has brought the majority of buyers holding the base for now. There has been little to dissuade me that the summer ‘wait state’ is ahead with a WIDE range as we sift through carnage for another quarter.

WEBINAR LINK FOR THE WEEK BEGINNING May 11, 2020Chart share links for ES_F , NQ_F , YM_F , CL_F , GC_F – levels here for download to the ThinkorSwim platform – NEW LINKS TODAY


LINK FOR TODAY’S TRADING DATA EXCEL SPREADSHEET – please note this requires a new password each week and that password is Italy&Germany&EU


Wide-angle range based trading continues with bounces off deep support and resistance selling at the highs or recent congestion. Support holds lower near 2787 so far and the levels near 2854 look like front line resistance for now. Traders will be whipsawed trying to engage, particularly if thoughts of trending come to mind. Choose wisely.

If you find yourself being chopped up, widen your time frame or take time away from your screens. This is a time when less is more.

Intraday LONG trading from support edges like ABOVE the VWAP or tight moving averages will give you the least risk event for engaging – removing your trade at resistance will allow you to participate – understanding that countertrend bounces can be swift and sharp but will likely fail under the broken structure of the market.

Intraday SHORT trading from resistance edges like the old highs or bigger moving averages will give you the least risk event for engaging. Follow the candle trend until candles stop breaking higher.

Here’s a link to the METASTOCK software– you can have your own copy of Metastock to run these tests and setups using Target Rich Trades.

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