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New Moons, Existing Home Sales & Gold Breaks Out – Jun 22, 2020

MARKET COMMENTARY– The new moon of the month is being emphasized in several spaces on the web (not sure it’s even a really reliable thing- but more anecdotal- but it appears to have a bullish backdrop. Conveniently, we are in a bounce retest of the 3100ish levels. We are still under a bearish breakdown that has triggered a short at the last test of 3146. The day brings us existing home sales and gold breaks above congestion and is not pulling back into support to create buying pressure for us. The line in the sand of 3112.5 for intraday strength upside- but that is a very messy patch.

From fast moves come failed moves in both directions – In the backdrop, we have gold in upper ranges, volatility in upper ranges, and bonds have bounced along with the dollar holding and continuing into resistance. We have likely begun our rotation cycle to deeper support -only another failed bounce will confirm this for us this has NOT happened.

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This week’s calendar

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********If you feel you need some help understanding how price moves, remember you have the COACH’S CORNER for video review.

THINKORSWIM USERS –Chart share links for ES_F , NQ_F , YM_F , CL_F , GC_F – levels here for download to the ThinkorSwim platform


LINK FOR TODAY’S TRADING DATA EXCEL SPREADSHEET – please note this requires a new password each week and that password is MovesVolatility20200615

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If you find yourself being chopped up, widen your time frame or take time away from your screens. This is a time when less is more.

Wide-angle range based trading continues with bounces off deep support and resistance selling at the highs or recent congestion. Support holds near now holds deeper below near 2988-3045 so far and the levels near 3138-3157 look like front line resistance for now. Traders will be whipsawed trying to engage, particularly if thoughts of trending come to mind- the markets are grinding with monster volatility beginning again. Choose your entry wisely.

Intraday LONG trading from support edges like ABOVE the VWAP or tight moving averages will give you the least risk event for engaging – removing your trade at resistance will allow you to participate – understanding that countertrend bounces can be swift and sharp but will likely fail under the broken structure of the market.

Intraday SHORT trading from resistance edges like the old highs or bigger moving averages will give you the least risk event for engaging. Follow the candle trend until candles stop breaking higher.

Here’s a link to the METASTOCK software– you can have your own copy of Metastock to run these tests and setups using Target Rich Trades.

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