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Jobless Claims, Outbreaks & Economic Numbers Weaken – Jun 25, 2020

Most of the Colorado River is brown, but here at the Havasu Falls are this beautiful teal. Enjoy

MARKET COMMENTARY– Jobless claims today might not be nearly as important as next week as companies grabble with viral contagion. On the flip side, as many folks test positive, mortality rates fall dramatically. please remember we are in a political cycle and ALL the news (both sides of the aisle) are driving narratives. Step back, take a breath, and separate yourself from this so that you might be able to look at price action more cleanly. We rose into the lower edge test of the 3146-3174 range. We now sit below the open of the week and we will likely struggle to recapture this as Wednesday’s price action was negative and tells us we may have new lows as the close of the week approaches.

We have gold in upper ranges, volatility in upper ranges, and bonds, along with the dollar, now holding steady. We are looking for another failed bounce and this is in progress. So far, our swing short still holds solidly.

THIS WEEK’S LIVE TRADING ROOM LINK register here to join us for the entire week

This week’s calendar

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********If you feel you need some help understanding how price moves, remember you have the COACH’S CORNER for video review.

THINKORSWIM USERS –Chart share links for ES_F , NQ_F , YM_F , CL_F , GC_F – levels here for download to the ThinkorSwim platform


LINK FOR TODAY’S TRADING DATA EXCEL SPREADSHEET – please note this requires a new password each week and that password is MovesVolatility20200615

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If you find yourself being chopped up, widen your time frame or take time away from your screens. This is a time when less is more.

Wide-angle range based trading continues with bounces off deep support and resistance selling at the highs or recent congestion. Support holds near now holds deeper below near 2987-3112.5 so far and the levels near 3138-3157 look like front line resistance for now. Traders will be whipsawed trying to engage, particularly if thoughts of trending come to mind- the markets are grinding with monster volatility beginning again. Choose your entry wisely.

Intraday LONG trading from support edges like ABOVE the VWAP or tight moving averages will give you the least risk event for engaging – removing your trade at resistance will allow you to participate – understanding that countertrend bounces can be swift and sharp but will likely fail under the broken structure of the market.

Intraday SHORT trading from resistance edges like the old highs or bigger moving averages will give you the least risk event for engaging. Follow the candle trend until candles stop breaking higher.

Here’s a link to the METASTOCK software– you can have your own copy of Metastock to run these tests and setups using Target Rich Trades.

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