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Jobless Claims & Trading Ranges- Sep 17, 2020

MARKET COMMENTARY – Jobless claims provide a better number than expected but futures stay negative. For the first time in several trading days, we see market participants watching the fade continue. We are near the low of the range, so buyers will attempt a bounce. Buying the fade proves optimal as traders are holding higher with overnight moves holding in familiar trading patterns. Until the buying is no longer rewarded, we will see these bounces continue. Some market analysts are still suggesting this could be a fade that will last through the month of September and into October, but that will remain as suspect if we recapture 3454 in the $ES_F this week.

Recapturing/holding the VWAP with pockets of savage downdrafts is still the likely price flow today also.

INTRADAY -Keep an eye on the daily resistance and support that we discussed and expect battles at these regions as buyers have a lot to prove to maintain bullish price flow on monthly formations- technical damage is being repaired. BIG time frames will help you position with the wind at your back.

Deep dips remain staging grounds for buyers but some momentum damage has been done- quick strikes to support and back to resistance appear to be the highest probability for success today- dips could certainly get deeper as price action takes little time for moving into support tests.




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Econoday Calendar

********If you feel you need some help understanding how price moves, remember you have the COACH’S CORNER for video review.

THINKORSWIM USERS –Chart share links for ES_F , NQ_F , YM_F , CL_F , GC_F – levels here for download to the ThinkorSwim platform


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TRADING LEVELS-levels remain the same

If you find yourself being chopped up, widen your time frame or take time away from your screens. This is a time when less is more.

Tightening ranges suggest a big move in either direction is ahead. This is a whipsaw grind with tests of both support and resistance ahead and we are seeing how savage the retracements can be, but bullish traders will attempt to be bold once more. We hold below the area near 3451- 3491- giving sellers the overall advantage in the short term, strengthening the chance that we slip back into the shorting zones and supports in our range near 3291.75 to 3226 and lower. Once this formation changes, we will look for the fades to get smaller, but for now, these big bounces we see will lead us to selling pressure above-so trade what’s in front of you and worry about what is ahead when we arrive there.

Intraday LONG trading from support edges like ABOVE the VWAP or tight moving averages will give you the least risk event for engaging – removing your trade at resistance will allow you to participate – understanding that countertrend bounces can be swift and sharp but will likely fail under the broken structure of the market.

Intraday SHORT trading from resistance edges like the old highs or bigger moving averages will give you the least risk event for engaging. Follow the candle trend until candles stop breaking higher.

Here’s a link to the METASTOCK software– you can have your own copy of Metastock to run these tests and setups using Target Rich Trades.

ES_F Sept contract
Target Rich Trades from MetaStock –

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