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Wednesday to Friday-New Levels – Oct 14, 2020

MARKET COMMENTARY – Reminder -I am officially on holiday until I return to the mainland on Oct 19 to my office.

NEW TRADING LEVELS AND UPDATED THINKORSWIM LINKS BELOW

Buyers have been relentless to push us above that key level early Monday above 3420 in the ES_F. It remains a bullish retest event that will give us an excellent entry point for long action – but I do suspect that we test the region into the election. We are only a few days from the date and volatility is creeping up. Buyers remain quite enthusiastic but as the days currently sit, we are within Monday’s range so Wednesday is going to be a big day.

The following chart images are replicated in the new trading spreadsheet below as well as new ThinkorSwim links.

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ES_F -as I mentioned on Monday’s blog post, we were very likely to see a minor exhaustion pattern as we breached resistance. All pullbacks still will run right into buyers waiting at key support zones. We should retest 3420 and potentially below but trade your trend and just follow along. Do not anticipate reversal unless you are at key zones visible to all
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NQ_F – the line of sellers can be seen from all the selling wicks to the left- see the arrow and true to form we saw both a press forward and a reversal currently still in play. Notice how far above our initial resistance zone the sellers pressed before reversing. This is why I am still suggesting that you move with the trend and DO NOT ANTICIPATE REVERSAL trades unless your stops are tight.
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YM_F continues to recover well with a breach into the green lines shown as likely on the horizon with a fade after- or (and this is true for all of the charts) – a fade that bounces off known support and recovers to head higher. All the charts are likely to head higher off support bounces
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CL_F -still landlocked
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GC_F – at a do or die here after several tests of the breakout line. If it holds, we’ll run the $20 up, if it fades, it could fade sharply. Use smaller time frames to time the entry or your risk might be wider than it needs to be. I would wait for the confirmation over/under this line. It could also turn into a wide range of noise, so be careful

Remember that strong big money traders have clear direction written into their mental process. We just have to find what they are doing and follow them. To do this, follow the trend until it breaks

As a reminder, there will be no live webinars until I return. I will be posting a series of small videos tomorrow after this blog post that should help navigate the terrain ahead.

Recapturing/holding the VWAP with pockets of savage downdrafts is still the likely price flow as the days continue in a choppy fashion. Eyes on the VWAP every day will help you keep the right side of the trade in focus.

INTRADAY -Keep an eye on the daily resistance and support that we discussed and expect battles at these regions as buyers have a lot to prove to maintain bullish price flow on monthly formations- technical damage is being repaired. BIG time frames will help you position with the wind at your back.

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NO LIVE TRADING ROOM ACTION UNTIL I RETURN NEXT WEEK

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This week’s calendar

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Econoday Calendar

********If you feel you need some help understanding how price moves, remember you have the COACH’S CORNER for video reviews.

THINKORSWIM USERS –Chart share links for ES_F , NQ_F , YM_F , CL_F , GC_F – levels here for download to the ThinkorSwim platform– TOS being problematic here today – no links for the charts. I will try again tomorrow. Trading levels are in the sheet below.

LINK FOR THE TRADING DATA EXCEL WORKBOOK

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TRADING LEVELS

If you find yourself being chopped up, widen your time frame or take time away from your screens. This is a time when less is more.

TRADING VIEW & ACTION PLAN
Buyers are moving to challenge selling territory but they still have the advantage.

Intraday LONG trading from support edges like ABOVE the VWAP or tight moving averages will give you the least risk event for engaging – removing your trade at resistance will allow you to participate – understanding that countertrend bounces can be swift and sharp but will likely fail under the broken structure of the market.

Intraday SHORT trading from resistance edges like the old highs or bigger moving averages will give you the least risk event for engaging. Follow the candle trend until candles stop breaking higher.

Here’s a link to the METASTOCK software– you can have your own copy of Metastock to run these tests and setups using Target Rich Trades.

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Target Rich Trades from MetaStock –

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