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Markets Stall & Earnings Releases Continue- Nov 12, 2020

MARKET COMMENTARY -For the last 24 hours market participants have held a range. CPI, jobless claims, and the Fed chair, Jerome Powell, are all on the docket this morning. This could be what the traders are waiting for in order to move. The spike from the vaccine news is the likely retrace but lower highs will dampen the move north. Use your OODA loop to confirm you are seeing things the right way. Stay present and in the near term, and not forward predictive. Forward predictive thought process is for the longer-term trader or investor, not the day trader and requires different timeframes of analysis. BE PATIENT AND WAIT FOR YOUR PRICES to give you the edge. Intraday formations are the ones governing the charts – so use them.

PLEASE SCROLL BELOW FOR THE LINK TO THE WEBINAR FOR THE LIVE TRADING ROOM

The ES_F gave back much of the move but still sits in the breakout territory. Deep fades into known support (3525) remain as zones to see buyers come in and we continue to hold the lows made for the last few days. Remember to wait for price action to tell you what is happening. Buyers are in charge but they will be willing to give back gains to build strength at key support levels in the rise forward. Pay attention to the VWAP. Once we drift below that line intraday and fail to recapture it, sellers will be bold in their attack to drive prices deeper.

The NQ_F moved right to the edge of expected moves sits inside of the overall range of price action in the market…suggesting sideways action is still ahead. The divergence in patterns between the ES and NQ shows us sector rotation and the recent strength in YM shows that foreign money may be moving in. There was a recovery bounce of sorts yesterday but the price action still appears weaker than its counterparts of the ES, and YM. Be careful in the moves and try not to buy breakouts before they confirm (or breakdowns for that matter) but look for the tight motion in the retrace to support before moving ahead. PAY ATTENTION TO YOUR STOPS.

The CL_F and GC_F breaks fell into deep support and are now approaching the recovery zones. For oil, that level to recover is 37 and it has breached that zone. The EIA report is today. And for gold, it fell more than 160 points as the dollar bounced when it came into critical support. Bitcoin is still holding its breakout rally numbers. Oil has tested well above 40 but still in a recovery formation as the reason for the bounce is sympathy on COVID recovery..

Watch the VWAP to help you with the strength of pressure. The loss of the VWAP will force some selling action, and the breach above the VWAP that holds will bring buyers to attempt stronger positioning.

INTRADAY -Keep an eye on the daily resistance and support that we discussed and expect battles at these regions as buyers have a lot to prove to maintain bullish price flow on monthly formations- technical damage is present but likely to be repaired on this large time frame. BIG time frames will help you position with the wind at your back.

Deep dips remain staging grounds in an essentially sideways week prior- quick strikes to support and back to resistance appear to be the highest probability for success today- dips could certainly get deeper as price action shifts to bearish mode finding to locate deeper support tests.

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THURSDAY’S LIVE TRADING ROOM RECORDING (active after the day is over)

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This week’s calendar

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Econoday Calendar for this week

********If you feel you need some help understanding how price moves, remember you have the COACH’S CORNER for video review.

THINKORSWIM USERS –Chart share links for ES_F , NQ_F , YM_F , CL_F , GC_F – levels here for download to the ThinkorSwim platform

LINK FOR TODAY’S TRADING DATA EXCEL SPREADSHEET

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TRADING LEVELS-remain the same

If you find yourself being chopped up, widen your time frame or take time away from your screens. This is a time when less is more.

TRADING VIEW & ACTION PLAN
Pure breakout action showing -showing a little shallow fade currently.

Intraday LONG trading from support edges like ABOVE the VWAP or tight moving averages will give you the least risk event for engaging – removing your trade at resistance will allow you to participate – understanding that countertrend bounces can be swift and sharp but will likely fail under the broken structure of the market.

Intraday SHORT trading from resistance edges like the old highs or bigger moving averages will give you the least risk event for engaging. Follow the candle trend until candles stop breaking higher.

Here’s a link to the METASTOCK software– you can have your own copy of Metastock to run these tests and setups using Target Rich Trades.

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ES_F
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Target Rich Trades from MetaStock – NQ_F

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