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Oil Drifts, & Expiration Friday – Feb 19, 2021

MARKET COMMENTARY – IN true form, we broke the low of Wednesday with another low yesterday, and today we are bouncing into Thursday’s open and rejecting. Compression candles are in full view once again. Volatility continues to pick up. We are still caught between the 3950 and 3880 regions into today’s expiration. Oil has faded sharply from its highs, which I anticipated but sitting at 59, we have another shot at a rise higher in the near term. And in other news, the new episode of WandaVision brought the Disney webservers to their knees for a moment when it dropped in this morning =)

We are still in a breakout formation that defended itself with retests of support that hold-so far, we hold above 3888-KEY SUPPORT-broken and recovered. SpotGamma says the morning tape will be jumpy so we need to use caution there. The positive retest of the bottom of the 3894 edge last evening gave us a good bounce pattern – much more reliable that the first bounce holding.

If you are newer, read The OODA loop. If used properly, it will confirm you are seeing things the right way. It is far better to be out of a trade you wish you were in than being in a trade you wish you were not. Stay present and in the near term, and pay attention to the players before you decide on a plan. BE PATIENT AND WAIT FOR YOUR PRICES to give you the edge. Intraday formations are the ones governing the charts – so use them.

**Buyers are attempting to hold control after the fade into 3880- we hold in a bullish formation testing 3914 (arguing here today) and 3924-3950 into Feb expiry, BUT we could easily chop back and forth with thin profiles still in play. We have higher levels into 3972 now showing. Pay attention to the VWAP. Once we drift below that line intraday and fail to recapture it, sellers will be bold in their attack to drive prices deeper.

The NQ_F sits under the call wall at 13992 regions -however, the QQQ’s are now in negative gamma territory, suggesting greater selloff potential if it breaks support ranges near 330. Setting trades long at deep support regions remains the highest probabilities for all our indices. Only after seeing a failure to recover support should we be bearish in our approach to trade positioning. ZONE IN ON ARGUMENTS AT THE VWAP. They will determine future slope and direction. The internal participation levels continue to be mixed here so new highs within the index seem to be fading in some places while holding in others.


Oil fades as expected into support. Gold and the dollar waffle as traders slip into Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies with greater flow.

Watch the VWAP to help you with the strength of pressure. The loss of the VWAP will force some selling action, and the breach above the VWAP that holds will bring buyers to attempt stronger positioning.

INTRADAY -Keep an eye on the daily resistance and support that we discussed and expect battles at these regions as buyers have a lot to prove to maintain bullish price flow on monthly formations- technical damage is present but likely to be repaired on this large time frame. BIG time frames will help you position with the wind at your back.

Deep dips remain staging grounds for buyers- quick strikes to support and back to resistance appear to be the highest probability for success today- dips could certainly get deeper and spikes could get higher as price action shifts.

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********If you feel you need some help understanding how price moves, remember you have the COACH’S CORNER for video review.

THINKORSWIM USERS –Chart share links for ES_F , NQ_F , YM_F , CL_F , GC_F – levels here for download to the ThinkorSwim platform-to be updated later today


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If you find yourself being chopped up, widen your time frame or take time away from your screens. This is a time when less is more.

Pullbacks can be deep-once support lines get lost – the lines will shift. Buyers are in a battle to resume dominance.

Intraday LONG trading from support edges like ABOVE the VWAP or tight moving averages will give you the least risk event for engaging – removing your trade at resistance will allow you to participate – understanding that countertrend bounces can be swift and sharp but will likely fail under the broken structure of the market.

Intraday SHORT trading from resistance edges like the old highs or bigger moving averages will give you the least risk event for engaging. Follow the candle trend until candles stop breaking higher.

Here’s a link to the METASTOCK software– you can have your own copy of Metastock to run these tests and setups using Target Rich Trades.

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