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A Look Ahead-Levels and Outlook— 12-5-2021

The week ahead holds many questions for the new month ahead. Chatter of gamma flows and nervous traders looking at the undercurrent of the markets. Inflows from weekly and monthly 401K purchases should find buying at the open of the day, but weakness is likely to create selling events into resistance.

We are watching movements out of Russia and China that could bring us a little trouble but that is far off into the horizon at the writing.

Markets are bouncing a bit but we are under the weekly 5sma, even though the slope of most of the lines are still upward. The charts are presenting a bit of weakness but the cross currents are very strong in both directions, making intraday trading quite difficult in the near term.

We currently suggest reviewing THE OODA LOOP and the details around thinking about price and environments.

The new trading levels spreadsheet for the futures can be downloaded HERE

The week ahead in terms of scheduled news is detailed from Econoday

From the swing trading perspective, we have to watch how the individual charts, however, it is clear that clear rotation into stronger issues that have been holding strength. Moving into bearish positions exclusively would create a fair amount of risk that I think is unnecessary at this time. But we will need to clear off weak instruments in the next few days from the books.

The swing portfolio link is HERE. Remember to be part of the TEAMS environment by using this link

We’ll now go over the futures environment – one by one

Notice how these 4hr candles retrace each other. We see resistance and support broken repeatedly but edges can be traded. We are making higher lows in the near term but breaking resistance is difficult, and holding it has been unsuccessful.

Notice these numbers on your charts – traders will dance around these levels so watch the behavior and note the morning opening tick.

NQ_F

Noisy levels – telegraph to tighter timeframes to watch for risk assessment

YM_F

Set alerts for the key levels for the least risk – watch carefully for either lower highs to short or higher lows to go long

CL_F

GC_F

Finally a look at the dollar continuing to lift off the lows at every dip. This means that the market participants anticipate quantitative tightening

$DXY