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The Week Ahead – 12 Jun 2022

The Market Outlook for the week ahead is decidedly negative with one caveat. If we hold the low of last week, it means traders are looking for a reversal event. And that means buyers will join the fight to lift off support. We just opened the premarket in the futures with a gap down into the low of the May 22 week

We also have an FOMC week ahead with a notice about another rate increase after the continued hot CPI

Levels of support to watch for more selling to continue

ES_F- lows to watch for buyers 3831 and 3805. Bounces near 3874.5 are associated with the low in the week of May 22. Losing 3874 pushes us down to 3831 and below. We are in bearish downward formations on all the larger time frames into 1hr and higher. Above 3905 will create a counter trend long bounce.

SPY- lows to watch for buyers 386.75 and 380.43. Bounces near 380.54 are associated with the low in the week of May 15. Losing 389.6 pushes us down to 386.15 and below. We are in bearish downward formations on all the larger time frames into 1hr and higher. Above 392.85 will create a counter trend long bounce into resistance above -403.

NQ_F -lows to watch for buyers 11831 and 11696. Bounces near 11491 are associated with the low in the week of May 22. Losing 11690 pushes us down to 11491 and below. We are in bearish downward formations on all the larger time frames into 1hr and higher. Above 11858 will create a noisy countertrend long into resistance.

QQQ- lows to watch for buyers 284 and 282.25. Bounces near 280.21 are associated with the low in the week of May 15. Losing 288.4 pushes us down to 284 and below. We are in bearish downward formations on all the larger time frames into 1hr and higher. Above 288.90 will create a counter trend long bounce into resistance above- 295.

We have a news heavy week for sensitivity towards inflation and the economy

Trades we took last week

Of these 10 trades, 7 of them are still open – one in the queue still to be filled DBC; two were closed positively at 100% and 78%, and one was closed flat.

We closed several trades from the prior weeks, all for gains.

Because motions is so dramatically negative and extreme fear showing in sentiment indicators across the board, we could see a bounce reversal but bearish actions will be primary below the levels we are discussing.

The VIX will expire on 6/15 and we will have contract rolls in the futures – another reason we could see very messy price action.

Note the slopes – all negative – so we watch support hold – if it does, we have countertrend or if we lose support we continue down
Note the slopes – all negative – so we watch support hold – if it does, we have countertrend or if we lose support we continue down