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Traders Anticipating Lower CPI Ahead- 10Aug, 2022

Market Outlook- Bullish bounce in a bearish backdrop. This means that we wait for deep dips to enter long and take profits as we breach resistance or run into outsized gains.

Also, I will be out of the office this afternoon after 11:30am and in and out sporadically on Thursday – I will be completely offline on Friday. Unusual when I am not traveling but taking care of some personal bits.

Another clue that markets are messy – picking your winning trades become harder when everyone is dancing to a different tune

Some forward predictions based on the past – not sure that it is the same this time but we will act like it is -until it tells us a different tune.

The chart everyone is watching
The prices of fertilizers is still shocking but coming in
Hard to fill jobs still climbing and hiring plans still coming in on a short term basis
Supply chain woes are fading with Canada being the lone standout there and one less month of reporting (hmm)

Now, onto the charts. Rangebound – note the lows, highs and congestions as we wait for the Fed to actually tell us what they are going to do. if the CPI numbers come in light, we are very likely to see a squeeze as so many are positioned short.

Though tech has rallied, the ES_F is still outperforming overall

I spoke with Steve Orr of Money.Net yesterday talking about trimming gains and finding winners and his current approach in the market.