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Quick Post – 23Sep, 2022

Markets continue to drift into the lows near June with momentum quite negative. I won’t be very chatty in any of the rooms today – we have some positions on that should continue to move nicely into targets. What I am looking for is how will the traders respond to the lows of June. And with no options of size expiring today and most positioning done for September until next week with JPM’s trades entering the mix, we have dribbles downside continuing in all likelihood.

The price event will be to watch the lower lows on the 30min or 15min chart – any tighter than that, the market will lead you astray. Like you might have trouble seeing a landscape when only having a vision field of a keyhole.

If these lows hold, we will attempt to retest old resistance – and this will bring trapped buyers to cover their positions – so the exception that bounces will fail to breach AND hold resistance at this time seems quite likely. As I do feel like a broken record, once moves outside of the range of your small time frames, expand to the daily and 4hr so that you can see where prices are moving.

Note the sweet spots in healthcare bringing buyers in – we are seeing selective buying.

Heat map
what it might mean if MBS holdings fade